TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$125,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$128,276

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,814 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes2c9,562$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.668,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c9,273$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.653,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4674…03cabacked No71c2,210$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.562185.7%18 W · 3 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+37.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes52c1,532$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.456,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes15c1,494$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.0913533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf1…c50abacked Yes13c1,378$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d21…07cfbacked No14c1,266$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.453324.2%8 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+63.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c1,213$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.4312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa498…727bbacked Yes18c1,101$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.129728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes9c1,063$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.0133620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x767c…5441backed Yes5c1,043$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.238143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes10c870.87$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.353925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No74c750.76$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.6357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e97…4828backed Yes8c728.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.344221.4%9 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09f6…f4f5backed Yes11c698.86$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.49160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed Yes18c692.05$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4319259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes17c674.41$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.931,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes8c638.56$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x652f…eb3dbacked No28c636.99$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.8111515.7%18 W · 97 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No13c524.92$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.161,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes16c523.55$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9812329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x772b…ab83backed Yes9c519.77$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.92166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick10cpaid+66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No72c515.63$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8914442.4%61 W · 83 L-11.7wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-35.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4611…3790backed Yes8c499.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.27319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes52c496.11$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.662,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1723…1795backed Yes31c475.35$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed Yes10c468.65$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7430859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes13c458.6$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes3c451.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5434918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes6c443.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9233018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46b4…72e9backed Yes16c443.07$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.227518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No77c436.42$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.764,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes9c365.81$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.484,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No68c355.07$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.952,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d74…3163backed Yes34c338.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.912416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c84…89f6backed Yes19c311.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5012…9a5cbacked Yes9c306.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.236934.8%24 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes63c298.57$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4732548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89ad…d1f3backed Yes7c284.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+193.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6deb…f584backed Yes8c279.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.112623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No21c244.43$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.7334319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…a6dcbacked Yes8c227.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.081915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-67%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes5c219.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.918316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes6c208.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5139810.8%43 W · 355 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked No71c206.5$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9922028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33b3…9e44backed Yes16c205.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.321520%3 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1dd4…0af2backed No75c203.75$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No7c200.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.832,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf4…dc8dbacked Yes18c199.44$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99c0…d227backed No64c183.51$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No34c181.9$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.261,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes14c178$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.92407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f45…506bbacked Yes9c166$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.25185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea2d…1ad8backed No70c154.98$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.3310100%10 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes11c151.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.851,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes7c151.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1914617.1%25 W · 121 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c140.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.72,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes33c135.07$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.71625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes38c131.78$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7130428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.98$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.082,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes20c129.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.274023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b1…ab63backed No61c126.72$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7438547.5%183 W · 202 L+16.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0215923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c21…3fb9backed No52c110.08$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7413260.6%80 W · 52 L+14.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+48.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb347…a115backed No36c110$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0211041.8%46 W · 64 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes52c109.78$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3156721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a37…1059backed Yes14c109.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.266339.7%25 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes20c108$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.811,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a39…acc7backed Yes11c106.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.699160.4%55 W · 36 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a05…8573backed No24c105.69$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.683268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+25.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes25c101.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef05…4d4ebacked Yes11c100.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff50…54b4backed Yes18c100.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42f8…f96fbacked No12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.92638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+56.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2638…e42cbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9271…19eabacked No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.543063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9941046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc273…51eabacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x113d…a5e6backed Yes19c97.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.942420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No76c91.78$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7729558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x675c…5af6backed No13c91.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.164967.3%33 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77d0…6f1fbacked Yes16c85.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.891735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid+119.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31c6…f2dcbacked Yes13c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.621118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3afe…075dbacked Yes14c78.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.841010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ec…e59abacked Yes15c76.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes56c75.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No45c75.51$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.891,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1973…4121backed Yes21c71.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d8…1db0backed Yes27c71.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-62%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked No74c67.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3257659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No75c65.4$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4162555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked Yes78c65.34$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.748946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ea0…b107backed Yes19c63.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128020%16 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes53c63.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.581,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x399f…e8d8backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010154.5%55 W · 46 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…75f3backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022171%157 W · 64 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No60c57.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8595852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Yes35c57.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8917237.2%64 W · 108 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked No25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4925742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.