Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8df1ecc7f816cbf66910dcc9f6ccbe8fb2d88ae8256afd8244749cc9aecaffea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 1,439$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.74 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 10c | 1,193$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 20c | 642.12$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 451.64$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.67 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 15c | 419.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 21c | 405$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 14c | 357.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc7…7780backed Yes | 29c | 311.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 12c | 302.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 284$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes | 19c | 281.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 123 | 29.3%36 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 20c | 240.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 216.2$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 16c | 213.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 203.95$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 10c | 199.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 191.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 16c | 178.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8af7…af1ebacked No | 71c | 169.27$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 146.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 55c | 129.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb25…2fdebacked No | 76c | 128.72$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 18c | 108$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 24c | 100.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc273…51eabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 99.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 37c | 98.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 20c | 97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 17c | 94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 25c | 91.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0234…ab99backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 12c | 89.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 86.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 17c | 86.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 27c | 79.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…f74fbacked Yes | 19c | 77.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 75.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 75.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 17c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Yes | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 24c | 66.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 62.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes | 20c | 59.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…a390backed Yes | 25c | 57.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd9…d5aabacked Yes | 22c | 51.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c0…f3ccbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…4b51backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…36eebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 63c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 79c | 31.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…0746backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 27.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de9…f9e7backed No | 79c | 27.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…646dbacked No | 80c | 26.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 76c | 26.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…6964backed No | 79c | 26.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 80c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 79c | 12.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.