TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,334
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,334 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4674…03cabacked Yes51c5,599$2,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,742.782185.7%18 W · 3 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+37.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No1c5,553$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.978,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes13c2,965$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,570.844,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes9c2,360$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,141.9736930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes42c1,532$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.646,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes12c1,334$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.7743139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes39c1,227$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d21…07cfbacked No15c1,200$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.53324.2%8 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+63.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes12c1,067$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.911,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No14c1,034$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.092,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes21c947.74$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.9113260.6%80 W · 52 L+14.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+48.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes8c687$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.161,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes78c604.12$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.6857044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes9c536.05$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.0512329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked No8c499.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No74c476.7$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.5412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1e86…18c7backed Yes11c434.2$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.241323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No9c416.47$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.434617.9%62 W · 284 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes12c411.61$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.5317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No78c410$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.2958349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2673…b2f2backed No64c381.37$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes79c367.08$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.194148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes14c356.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.2233018.8%62 W · 268 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c350.59$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.4712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes14c347.73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.630428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5fb…4b6ebacked Yes73c319.88$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.181040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes10c308.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.22638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+56.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes22c282$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.1936819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No10c275$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.56219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes8c266.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.622,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes20c263.12$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.851,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No62c244.44$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.344,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No32c243.92$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5786050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes7c223.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.072,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes13c217.95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.622,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeda…b697backed Yes53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.678872.7%64 W · 24 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes19c187.55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7753925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes10c179.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.917,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes6c168.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.781,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes15c165.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.216840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e97…4828backed Yes12c163.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.834221.4%9 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes17c161.42$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.443622.2%8 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed No12c156.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1413315%20 W · 113 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ce…5b4abacked Yes9c150.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.65911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes75c133.65$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.952,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No37c132.44$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.691,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes8c125$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11525130.7%77 W · 174 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No64c123.03$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.371,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes22c121.02$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed Yes42c115.31$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7829459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes18c108$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.051,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…137ebacked Yes12c104$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5213663.2%86 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc273…51eabacked Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8638547.5%183 W · 202 L+16.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7341046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes19c99.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9934748.7%169 W · 178 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes10c99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.9215923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes16c94.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2257659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes23c92.5$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8932548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No49c84.15$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.111,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes64c78.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.026065%39 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68d3…81e1backed Yes18c78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes15c71.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7322028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No20c69.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No74c64.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8929558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3487…11f5backed Yes28c54.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.789653.1%51 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No58c52.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8189951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No50c40.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.221848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd8…2b6cbacked Yes63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.861770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed No77c39.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3016157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked No79c36.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.468946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a00…929bbacked Yes53c33.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.692965.5%19 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a2c…0746backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85872.4%42 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x982e…f467backed No55c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.831520%3 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2982…60ddbacked No60c23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.754254.8%23 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2599…747ebacked No57c22.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.752684.6%22 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9357232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xd138…aac0backed No75c16.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.389221.7%20 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-38.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed No79c14.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3755538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.