TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,501

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,110 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes1c2,042$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.391625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes26c1,851$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.344,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes3c1,400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes5c1,268$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.821,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes5c766.46$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.752,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes27c629.08$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7923035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes25c621.27$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No78c462.54$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5432548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No72c400$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1127659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c399.81$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d0…2295backed Yes28c363.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid+89.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes15c349.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5430428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c340.44$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes7c314$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.46,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdc7…7780backed Yes26c305.92$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2411515.7%18 W · 97 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c237.65$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.442,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes16c235.91$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.741,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes25c229.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5811731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No75c227.92$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9261760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes22c222$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.712329.3%36 W · 87 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes9c216.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2059440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8832444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No71c196.85$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes23c190.22$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.324623.9%11 W · 35 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-46.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes26c188$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.882920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c186.6$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.015,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes25c168.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.71,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes22c167.4$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8333243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f1…6aa4backed No68c146.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.053167.7%21 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes9c144.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.052419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No79c135.11$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.513,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes19c133.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc273…51eabacked Yes28c120$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c118.33$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.48,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes16c108$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.271,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed Yes21c107.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1314826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No71c105.3$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.681,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3487…11f5backed Yes18c103.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.319653.1%51 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes23c101.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.331,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c101$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.289,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes24c100.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.27521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8313424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9955…6998backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.574219%8 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225226.9%14 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3143525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No71c99.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296950.7%35 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes25c99.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8315626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes15c99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8619123.6%45 W · 146 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes25c92.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.183,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1203…3947backed No74c91.6$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0415639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…f74fbacked Yes23c90.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.61225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes20c87.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6156721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c84.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.137,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No70c83.24$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.234,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No71c81.88$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.891,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Yes42c80.61$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3414134.8%49 W · 92 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x46b4…72e9backed Yes27c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.947518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd630…28edbacked Yes25c79.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes39c77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes26c73.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9486847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes21c71.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7222028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes28c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.610728%30 W · 77 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2d6…9b4dbacked Yes25c69.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.332147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x343f…bb4dbacked No73c67.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9613533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Yes30c66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84924.5%12 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes27c63.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.063,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…a390backed Yes26c57.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-59.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes25c54.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No70c53.29$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.91,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x062c…48e7backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+63.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d2…5317backed Yes33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.45922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8811341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe30c…dbb1backed Yes30c49.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf547…9ebbbacked No61c47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.277361.6%45 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No78c46.17$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9458349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a37…1059backed Yes31c40.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.36339.7%25 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.45841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes26c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5132044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes39c38.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5208…ec3abacked No72c35.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.93636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6889…f2e3backed Yes29c35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.155145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0494…631fbacked No79c33.62$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.093060%18 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe396…cfd4backed Yes31c33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64b0…ab64backed No72c32.83$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.329459.5%175 W · 119 L+20.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cb6…2ff6backed No79c31.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.649943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e9…a2f8backed No71c31.59$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0511872.9%86 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No60c30.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.232652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a2c…0746backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.25872.4%42 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No66c28.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.669250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfab…fe90backed No74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.52060%12 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1345…e4debacked No77c24.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.77676.3%58 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No76c23.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.71,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1a0…4a06backed No71c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.675641.1%23 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No75c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be0…c37dbacked No71c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0219058.9%112 W · 78 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7512365%80 W · 43 L+0.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No72c16.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6740777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.