Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x017a9b2004140059d59cef895ae675508894de5fd9011f5b93c1c9457c3ac25c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 661.03$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 359.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 235$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 219.02$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…625cbacked No | 71c | 196.82$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 160.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…af35backed No | 65c | 153.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 141$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 123.02$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 121.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 76c | 113.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 38c | 104.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 33c | 103.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 102.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 66c | 95.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 93.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 85.41$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 68c | 80.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 75.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…0ed0backed Yes | 41c | 56.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 55.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 68c | 52.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 41.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 39.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 30.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 62c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 67c | 19.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 15.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.