F1 · resolved market
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0260fc8a85824ee36eff216e5b4a46ed99e530c730a4cf949d59213a0871aaec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $219,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $219,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 0c | 31,617$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 3c | 24,409$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.14 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 0c | 22,651$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes | 1c | 13,487$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…c9a2backed Yes | 0c | 8,725$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,009$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,030$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 3,492$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 3,152$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…7f59backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.16 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…87dbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,252$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 2c | 2,196$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…2783backed Yes | 1c | 2,190$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +398.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 4c | 2,161$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 2c | 2,101$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e1…1728backed Yes | 3c | 1,893$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,577$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,368$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,362$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,308$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…57d5backed Yes | 4c | 1,068$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3417…1ec9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f6…6cc1backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 2c | 870$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 3c | 785.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Yes | 2c | 746.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…82a3backed Yes | 2c | 691.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes | 3c | 606.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d13…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 561.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9705…12f9backed Yes | 2c | 499.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 6c | 411.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Yes | 4c | 410.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fd…e020backed Yes | 3c | 386.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…55a0backed Yes | 3c | 386.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fb…c3efbacked Yes | 4c | 236.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Esteban Ocon win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lance Stroll win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Liam Lawson win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Pierre Gasly win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Yuki Tsunoda win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.