TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Cloud9
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$409,240
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$459,010

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,240 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 319 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Cloud935c52,581$18,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,190.891,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Team Liquid53c47,103$25,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,961.3853750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Cloud91c28,271$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.7145937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Cloud940c27,477$10,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,931.9257246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked Team Liquid63c21,566$13,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,069.0621968%149 W · 70 L+28.8wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+38.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Team Liquid62c12,882$7,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,922.191,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187a…a22bbacked Cloud950c11,479$5,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,77310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Cloud91c11,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020546.8%96 W · 109 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Liquid59c10,601$6,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,384.31,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Team Liquid76c10,186$7,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,410.7248149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Team Liquid56c9,229$5,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,086.6157957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Cloud942c8,782$3,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,692.361931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-43.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Cloud947c8,713$4,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,101.621,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Cloud939c8,588$3,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,351.32,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e6…23c2backed Cloud946c8,360$3,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,806.9511247.3%53 W · 59 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6130…a7a6backed Cloud948c7,282$3,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,495.137936.7%29 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Cloud943c6,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.973,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2735…42ebbacked Cloud941c5,020$2,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,033.23655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Liquid58c5,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1201,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Team Liquid57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.992657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team Liquid62c4,000$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5201,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Team Liquid57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,72089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Cloud941c3,753$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.0169741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Cloud943c3,450$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.55343.4%23 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed Team Liquid75c3,272$2,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.0516162.1%100 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked Team Liquid58c2,974$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.250155.3%277 W · 224 L-21.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d77…164fbacked Cloud943c2,676$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.44850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Team Liquid61c2,670$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.8754756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Team Liquid80c2,666$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.218971.4%135 W · 54 L+11.1wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcea4…be49backed Cloud94c2,659$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7612717.3%22 W · 105 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Liquid61c2,585$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.191,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Team Liquid58c2,478$1,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.161,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed Cloud944c2,420$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05319748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Cloud942c2,390$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.827957.7%161 W · 118 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Liquid55c2,300$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03587844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff88…00e9backed Cloud91c2,269$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.11175.1%6 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Team Liquid39c2,227$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.8558559.7%349 W · 236 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Cloud91c2,168$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.921,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Liquid59c2,125$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.182,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bab…6832backed Cloud942c2,075$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.9350845.3%230 W · 278 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Cloud938c2,025$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.3748448.6%235 W · 249 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Liquid62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7601,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0103…5ca8backed Team Liquid53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9407162%44 W · 27 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Cloud940c2,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81017439.1%68 W · 106 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Cloud938c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.9931337.7%118 W · 195 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2d8…f6b6backed Cloud942c1,967$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.15728.1%16 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Team Liquid59c1,955$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.1559554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Team Liquid59c1,931$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.911,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Cloud942c1,799$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.171,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x997c…51f3backed Cloud930c1,790$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.9719342%81 W · 112 L-14.0wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Cloud947c1,762$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.341,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Cloud950c1,733$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86682953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Cloud943c1,700$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7261,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d51…d971backed Cloud963c1,587$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00067057.5%385 W · 285 L+24.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Cloud938c1,578$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.082,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Team Liquid60c1,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb7e…4ea1backed Team Liquid77c1,482$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.964100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x823d…f85bbacked Cloud962c1,442$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.4112054.2%65 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Team Liquid57c1,430$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.8228235.1%99 W · 183 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Team Liquid61c1,418$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.385742.7%366 W · 491 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team Liquid58c1,404$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.711,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Cloud938c1,262$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.491,13431%352 W · 782 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Team Liquid39c1,196$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.8262158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Cloud929c1,178$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.8117647.7%84 W · 92 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e81…8b41backed Cloud94c1,176$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1610517.1%18 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked Team Liquid46c1,167$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6322944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…0b71backed Cloud943c1,132$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.114751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Cloud968c1,108$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.841,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Cloud944c1,088$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.511,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x068d…2678backed Cloud96c1,059$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5810933%36 W · 73 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Team Liquid78c1,054$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.3728544.9%128 W · 157 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Team Liquid57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4301,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe410…d4d1backed Team Liquid60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40015352.9%81 W · 72 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb93…e1d3backed Cloud943c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43010546.7%49 W · 56 L-9.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-24.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9973…bd7fbacked Team Liquid58c999.99$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42017953.1%95 W · 84 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Team Liquid56c999.99$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44049549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Cloud954c999.98$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.4791854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515d…0340backed Team Liquid73c989.02$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.0334658.1%201 W · 145 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed Team Liquid73c968.64$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.5334255.6%190 W · 152 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked Team Liquid73c923.05$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.2233857.7%195 W · 143 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked Team Liquid74c896.79$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.2535058.6%205 W · 145 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9a9…3ba9backed Team Liquid59c848.95$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.9533845.3%153 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked Team Liquid73c830.83$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.3335659%210 W · 146 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88f2…a6c1backed Team Liquid60c805.82$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.5121254.2%115 W · 97 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Team Liquid37c804.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.331,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Liquid61c800$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+66.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Team Liquid57c786.2$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.4339162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec8…1d07backed Team Liquid58c784$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.2812454%67 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Liquid69c763.86$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.161,31847.3%624 W · 694 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Cloud944c759.84$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.3360354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Team Liquid57c750$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.537039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2e…ee7bbacked Cloud95c749.93$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418937.1%33 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Team Liquid55c722.35$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.7566559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Team Liquid62c700$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.53852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc6…4593backed Team Liquid58c682.05$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.4627946.2%129 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Team Liquid61c681.32$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.0121458.9%126 W · 88 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f2…aeb7backed Cloud942c680$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.620542.4%87 W · 118 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Cloud961c676.02$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.732045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid45c635.27$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.722,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Team Liquid59c623.59$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.5946552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.