TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billy Harrisof Billy Harris, Arthur Gea
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$144,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,589 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Arthur Gea16c26,035$4,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,251.828,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f65…2036backed Arthur Gea60c24,957$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00074439.8%296 W · 448 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Billy Harris40c10,251$4,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,182.373,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Billy Harris54c6,760$3,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,096.4111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Billy Harris76c6,636$5,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,592.944,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Billy Harris75c4,014$3,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.632,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaf3…e802backed Arthur Gea21c4,000$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.8347728.1%134 W · 343 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4698…d7a5backed Arthur Gea58c3,323$1,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,927.4953655.4%297 W · 239 L-28.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf12f…b30fbacked Arthur Gea25c2,411$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60070041.1%288 W · 412 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Arthur Gea25c2,406$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.3757321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Billy Harris41c2,279$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.194,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Arthur Gea36c1,408$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.544,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd6…1fa0backed Arthur Gea48c1,328$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.853040%12 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c50…d6ebbacked Billy Harris76c1,315$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.611059.1%65 W · 45 L+0.5wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Billy Harris60c1,137$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.255,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Billy Harris66c1,107$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.453,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9af…359cbacked Billy Harris79c1,083$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.2151457.2%294 W · 220 L+29.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Billy Harris75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501,14853%608 W · 540 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Billy Harris50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40087337.1%324 W · 549 L-3.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a3e…cd83backed Billy Harris75c748.12$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.3544552.8%235 W · 210 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Arthur Gea37c746.99$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.014,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x512a…d537backed Arthur Gea30c670.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009340.9%38 W · 55 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe89c…9c72backed Billy Harris77c662$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.7243054.9%236 W · 194 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Billy Harris49c595.32$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.632,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Billy Harris72c574.5$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.8627753.4%148 W · 129 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a92…6b00backed Billy Harris78c566.1$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.147651.9%247 W · 229 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Billy Harris63c533.07$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.722,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Arthur Gea53c507.23$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.8352557%299 W · 226 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Billy Harris61c491.8$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.835955.7%200 W · 159 L+20.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Billy Harris43c472.19$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.94,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arthur Gea31c471.96$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.638,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Arthur Gea16c450$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7369438%264 W · 430 L+21.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35d…102abacked Arthur Gea41c442.81$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1837445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Arthur Gea44c436.4$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.091,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Billy Harris40c434.69$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.0285449.6%424 W · 430 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d99…9675backed Arthur Gea44c426$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3415530.3%47 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef3a…1eb3backed Billy Harris49c408.65$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.6517941.3%74 W · 105 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Arthur Gea26c376.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.561,37916.4%226 W · 1,153 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe648…675fbacked Billy Harris48c376.36$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.7110140.6%41 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Arthur Gea31c369.77$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1727940.1%112 W · 167 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Arthur Gea13c350$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4630040%120 W · 180 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Arthur Gea13c350$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4619941.7%83 W · 116 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ca2…088ebacked Arthur Gea13c350$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4619744.7%88 W · 109 L+17.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc75…af4dbacked Arthur Gea13c350$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4618841.5%78 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Arthur Gea41c347.87$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.191,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Arthur Gea24c332.24$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8930625.8%79 W · 227 L-28.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Arthur Gea58c298.98$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.653,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cff…3984backed Billy Harris75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6718258.8%107 W · 75 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb31b…200bbacked Arthur Gea37c250$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.257751.9%40 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Arthur Gea57c247.28$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.652,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2470…a03bbacked Arthur Gea27c240$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dad…c7fdbacked Arthur Gea34c238.62$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41dd…6c94backed Arthur Gea27c218.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603756.8%21 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Billy Harris35c214$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1396,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Arthur Gea29c205.97$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.171,00843.8%442 W · 566 L-2.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Billy Harris42c203.55$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0643158.2%251 W · 180 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd95…08b8backed Arthur Gea18c200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35828.5%7 W · 75 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-65.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Arthur Gea51c199.98$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9969253.3%369 W · 323 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Billy Harris44c198.25$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.541,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Billy Harris48c195.73$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.421,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Arthur Gea63c184.76$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.458359.2%345 W · 238 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Billy Harris49c183.1$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3822255.4%123 W · 99 L+0.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x924d…d117backed Arthur Gea58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011947.1%56 W · 63 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Arthur Gea51c171.59$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.752,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Arthur Gea35c168.29$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.943950.8%223 W · 216 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Arthur Gea31c166.19$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5285348.9%417 W · 436 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Billy Harris60c156.33$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.781,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Arthur Gea37c156.03$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.992,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Billy Harris66c150.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.041,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Billy Harris61c149.2$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.726,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87d1…3744backed Arthur Gea70c141.43$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991,10466.9%739 W · 365 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf20…3b1bbacked Billy Harris71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.852759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea6…428abacked Billy Harris77c130.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.328348.1%136 W · 147 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Arthur Gea31c129.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4081933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Billy Harris48c124.42$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.71,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Arthur Gea34c123.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8513040%52 W · 78 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arthur Gea46c121.35$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.278,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Arthur Gea62c120.77$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6196945.9%445 W · 524 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e5…d1f0backed Billy Harris66c118.09$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.095639.3%22 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Arthur Gea48c118$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.721,76752.1%920 W · 847 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x695c…35dfbacked Billy Harris68c117.65$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.651758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad5…ccdebacked Arthur Gea52c115$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.855032.7%180 W · 370 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Arthur Gea35c108.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5443750.3%220 W · 217 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Arthur Gea14c106.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.934,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x720e…17b0backed Billy Harris72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287862.8%49 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Arthur Gea53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5353657.8%310 W · 226 L+35.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Arthur Gea52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523943.6%17 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6796…453fbacked Billy Harris55c99.22$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6594447.7%450 W · 494 L+34.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Arthur Gea51c98.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5022235.1%78 W · 144 L+1.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x104f…04aabacked Billy Harris50c96.6$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.326134.1%89 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39f6…c6efbacked Arthur Gea16c95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5326640.6%108 W · 158 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Billy Harris78c94$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.132,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa442…dca3backed Arthur Gea46c86.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7311162.2%69 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Billy Harris49c85.8$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.763,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Billy Harris45c84.27$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.272,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Billy Harris46c82.61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.613,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Billy Harris47c80.85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.853,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Billy Harris47c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.41,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Billy Harris31c72.77$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.211,23446.3%571 W · 663 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb3e…b9c5backed Arthur Gea29c72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8835558.6%208 W · 147 L+19.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.