TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Secret Whalesof Team Secret Whales, MVK Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,433

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,079 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Secret Whales78c3,896$3,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.032,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe018…1b18backed MVK Esports40c2,731$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.244057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Team Secret Whales73c2,000$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55060053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed MVK Esports1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked MVK Esports20c1,980$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3969823.5%23 W · 75 L-10.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed MVK Esports61c1,697$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.711,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed MVK Esports1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151541.9%3 W · 151 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed MVK Esports1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156214.5%9 W · 53 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+92.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed MVK Esports1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152181.8%4 W · 214 L+0.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Team Secret Whales25c1,333$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.811,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed MVK Esports12c1,317$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.957869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Team Secret Whales25c1,306$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.7769841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed MVK Esports77c1,294$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.4417744.6%79 W · 98 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed MVK Esports38c1,263$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.922,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed MVK Esports5c1,150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.281,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3737…bfd1backed Team Secret Whales75c1,039$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.2337957.5%218 W · 161 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked MVK Esports25c1,003$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.611,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed MVK Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick1cpaid+89.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed MVK Esports25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25054756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked MVK Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040916.1%66 W · 343 L-0.8wins0.00per pick16cpaid+23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed MVK Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101543.9%6 W · 148 L-0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed MVK Esports70c996.5$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.5552848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf529…755fbacked Team Secret Whales18c821$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.2224137.8%91 W · 150 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed MVK Esports24c804.56$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.11,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed Team Secret Whales76c789.47$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.471,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked MVK Esports37c776.26$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.551,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8d93…b34dbacked MVK Esports23c714.84$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1550155.3%277 W · 224 L-21.6wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x191f…f09ebacked Team Secret Whales23c679.76$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.8342540.7%173 W · 252 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed MVK Esports37c620.55$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.0386943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked MVK Esports24c616.64$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15037640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed Team Secret Whales36c581.23$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.2380150.7%406 W · 395 L+48.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x868b…1eb0backed Team Secret Whales61c554.3$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.1810550.5%53 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked MVK Esports29c552.13$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.792,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x53a5…55dfbacked MVK Esports40c501.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6743358.2%252 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MVK Esports27c499.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked MVK Esports47c496.93$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.011,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed MVK Esports52c495.04$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.1978043.1%336 W · 444 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x695d…0d7cbacked MVK Esports72c466.57$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.9367553.5%361 W · 314 L+25.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MVK Esports51c419.32$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.793,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Team Secret Whales49c412$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.1221754.8%119 W · 98 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed MVK Esports21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8494237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fef…8c79backed MVK Esports51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20426246.9%123 W · 139 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed MVK Esports30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12043233.8%146 W · 286 L-20.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Team Secret Whales76c400$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed MVK Esports30c381.95$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5923943.1%103 W · 136 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed MVK Esports36c343.02$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3875342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed Team Secret Whales76c340.32$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.851,37248.6%667 W · 705 L+57.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef98…68f7backed Team Secret Whales79c338.52$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4913145.8%60 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd48…8e98backed MVK Esports32c316.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005020%10 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee9c…c449backed Team Secret Whales24c309.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.1252743.5%229 W · 298 L+32.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa57d…701fbacked MVK Esports54c307.7$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0212446%57 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked MVK Esports51c303.34$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0219743.7%86 W · 111 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed MVK Esports45c271.94$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4541439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Team Secret Whales46c249.99$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.991,15645.1%521 W · 635 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked MVK Esports31c234.17$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.421,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked MVK Esports26c218.91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9640231.3%126 W · 276 L-28.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed MVK Esports32c217.46$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7015829.7%47 W · 111 L-0.5wins0.00per pick30cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Team Secret Whales70c214.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2940364.5%260 W · 143 L+0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c4e…6c11backed Team Secret Whales32c213.1$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7936749.9%183 W · 184 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd459…4757backed MVK Esports25c208$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5257754.9%317 W · 260 L+24.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Team Secret Whales52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9645937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e42…f22abacked MVK Esports30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6029942.8%128 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed MVK Esports30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6072637.7%274 W · 452 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde2a…6bfebacked Team Secret Whales69c200$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6372234.1%246 W · 476 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f8…8c55backed Team Secret Whales29c200$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1429640.6%39 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed MVK Esports25c199.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.941,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23a9…68efbacked Team Secret Whales38c198.7$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.75743.9%25 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked MVK Esports41c194.77$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.041,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed MVK Esports30c186$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6660738.7%235 W · 372 L+2.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed MVK Esports30c186$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6659740.7%243 W · 354 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked MVK Esports44c177.34$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.991,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc263…d6eabacked Team Secret Whales77c169.4$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.525242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Team Secret Whales51c150$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.526856%150 W · 118 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdec9…b8abbacked MVK Esports25c143$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7533153.2%176 W · 155 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked MVK Esports25c142$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.062,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MVK Esports49c139.47$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.182,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Team Secret Whales73c132.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.891,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed MVK Esports29c131.45$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1257351.3%294 W · 279 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Team Secret Whales54c125.23$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.41,35731.2%423 W · 934 L-129.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x06a6…03abbacked MVK Esports53c120.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.28837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed MVK Esports71c119.72$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8547953.2%255 W · 224 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed MVK Esports42c118.18$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2969041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e98…1047backed MVK Esports79c115.56$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913650%18 W · 18 L-5.5wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-21.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc9e7…c067backed Team Secret Whales76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243357.6%19 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Team Secret Whales26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7495048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45b5…c5a8backed MVK Esports15c99.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Team Secret Whales68c97.48$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3682836.4%301 W · 527 L-41.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed MVK Esports51c95.54$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7775150.7%381 W · 370 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed MVK Esports34c87.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3080832.9%266 W · 542 L-43.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked MVK Esports60c86.59$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5295551.7%494 W · 461 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked MVK Esports25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018040.6%73 W · 107 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x630b…34ffbacked Team Secret Whales33c76.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.211056.4%62 W · 48 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea2…370cbacked Team Secret Whales20c75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6047434.8%165 W · 309 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ac9…7050backed Team Secret Whales73c74.35$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.082857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfcf…a26ebacked Team Secret Whales44c70$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.236331.1%113 W · 250 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Secret Whales53c64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.892,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed MVK Esports28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.812040%48 W · 72 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3f1…401ebacked Team Secret Whales54c58.51$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9135943.7%157 W · 202 L-0.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c65…fa22backed Team Secret Whales69c58.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.343844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Team Secret Whales71c56.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3423880.3%191 W · 47 L+16.2wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.