TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shopify Rebellionof Shopify Rebellion, Disguised
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$139,096
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,884

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,096 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf201…527ebacked Shopify Rebellion54c15,962$8,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,332.61,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Disguised51c9,119$4,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,614.71,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Shopify Rebellion56c7,481$4,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,300.051,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Shopify Rebellion55c6,256$3,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,807.21,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Disguised44c6,142$2,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,702.518961.4%116 W · 73 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Disguised37c4,789$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.972,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Shopify Rebellion54c4,700$2,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,169.061,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Disguised41c4,284$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.6885442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Disguised41c3,732$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.161,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Disguised55c3,500$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.8891854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Shopify Rebellion75c2,803$2,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.1789347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd458…1c90backed Shopify Rebellion77c2,800$2,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.243056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Disguised50c2,207$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.241,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Disguised58c2,015$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.5389943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Shopify Rebellion57c1,976$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.230357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Shopify Rebellion46c1,845$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.4363546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Shopify Rebellion47c1,795$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.3250749.7%252 W · 255 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Disguised48c1,761$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.261,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Disguised35c1,702$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58847933.6%161 W · 318 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Disguised36c1,698$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.781,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8756…3c83backed Disguised50c1,562$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.48543.5%37 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Shopify Rebellion55c1,336$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.6983560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Shopify Rebellion41c1,325$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.531,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Disguised44c1,281$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.1176142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Disguised2c1,100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Shopify Rebellion41c1,004$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.6440145.4%182 W · 219 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Shopify Rebellion41c918.6$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.981,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Disguised45c896.47$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.3695041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0960…5adcbacked Shopify Rebellion56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.8612642.1%53 W · 73 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Shopify Rebellion55c740$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3331,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Shopify Rebellion53c700.27$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.71,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Disguised39c685.14$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.811,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Shopify Rebellion42c668.68$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.8331153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Shopify Rebellion59c632.09$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.951,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Disguised21c609.98$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.233125.7%85 W · 246 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfae6…ab69backed Disguised50c600.59$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30054246.3%251 W · 291 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Disguised46c579.76$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.6274250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Disguised34c567.18$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.74327.9%12 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Disguised46c551$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.851,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Disguised41c540.73$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.1982836.4%301 W · 527 L-41.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Disguised42c528$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.0975342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked Disguised44c521.45$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed Disguised58c517.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30050051.6%258 W · 242 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7329…bebdbacked Disguised43c510.23$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22043453.5%232 W · 202 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c4e…6c11backed Disguised3c510$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.336749.9%183 W · 184 L+15.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Disguised58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Disguised60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Shopify Rebellion44c499.98$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.4946650.9%237 W · 229 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Disguised45c484.19$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.8937754.1%204 W · 173 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7230…4033backed Shopify Rebellion63c481.42$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Shopify Rebellion54c477.33$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.8636047.5%171 W · 189 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Disguised48c454.6$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.5369841.8%292 W · 406 L+46.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Disguised43c432.97$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1337548%180 W · 195 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc480…60afbacked Shopify Rebellion50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20039747.9%190 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Shopify Rebellion42c400$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2321,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x681b…3d79backed Disguised41c400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16417749.7%88 W · 89 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Disguised35c396.51$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0786251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce51…1ddbbacked Shopify Rebellion54c386.18$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1812657.9%73 W · 53 L+10.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Disguised56c380.65$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.1728448.6%138 W · 146 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb003…d62dbacked Shopify Rebellion55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.648243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1ef…4a40backed Shopify Rebellion55c359.6$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.828834.1%30 W · 58 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked Shopify Rebellion57c350$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.563352%329 W · 304 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Shopify Rebellion61c350$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1351,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3b…b968backed Shopify Rebellion58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8341060.5%248 W · 162 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Disguised58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x828b…a13fbacked Shopify Rebellion60c331.08$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.0810450%52 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53a5…55dfbacked Disguised52c321.36$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.643358.2%252 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Shopify Rebellion52c318.87$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.061,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Disguised43c317.34$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.411,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed Shopify Rebellion56c300$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13357151.5%294 W · 277 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Disguised44c299.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9950647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f05…85c5backed Disguised57c270.52$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15439861.8%246 W · 152 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ec…d09cbacked Disguised18c256.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.458629.1%25 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3911…30f3backed Shopify Rebellion61c251.97$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2715953.5%85 W · 74 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Disguised42c250$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1059545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Shopify Rebellion42c240$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.21,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d51…d971backed Shopify Rebellion42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.167057.5%385 W · 285 L+24.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa430…c6f9backed Disguised57c233.33$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13326150.6%132 W · 129 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Disguised31c224.52$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.671,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Shopify Rebellion48c224.13$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.262,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked Disguised49c204.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047453.4%253 W · 221 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f24…b463backed Shopify Rebellion55c200.23$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4525149.8%125 W · 126 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Shopify Rebellion50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10025256.3%142 W · 110 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d07…8b9ebacked Shopify Rebellion43c199.99$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11444047.5%209 W · 231 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…f1f3backed Shopify Rebellion55c195$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7524648.4%119 W · 127 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Disguised39c186.52$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.92,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e8e…f9b2backed Disguised54c179.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9440446%186 W · 218 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Disguised42c174.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.131,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Disguised19c170$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0545618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe136…6d09backed Shopify Rebellion46c160.01$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0119738.6%76 W · 121 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x772b…5facbacked Disguised39c160$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.485554.7%468 W · 387 L+33.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Shopify Rebellion50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8027244.1%120 W · 152 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad09…612cbacked Shopify Rebellion57c157.42$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.694456.8%25 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+39.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cb5…def4backed Shopify Rebellion64c156.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0211258.9%66 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e2…8fb6backed Disguised27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.526236.6%96 W · 166 L+24.6wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+27.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed Shopify Rebellion51c147.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0680150.7%406 W · 395 L+48.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee9c…c449backed Disguised45c146.8$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0652743.5%229 W · 298 L+32.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Shopify Rebellion47c140$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.21,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed Shopify Rebellion51c139.06$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.071,37248.6%667 W · 705 L+57.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Disguised57c136.06$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.963,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.