TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shopify Rebellionof Shopify Rebellion, Disguised
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$205,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,408 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf201…527ebacked Shopify Rebellion62c9,128$5,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,425.261,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Shopify Rebellion54c8,943$4,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,096.862,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Shopify Rebellion49c7,965$3,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,062.681,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Disguised15c7,600$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.0727353.1%145 W · 128 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Disguised50c5,500$2,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,754.981,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Disguised58c4,999$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.6691854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Disguised45c3,650$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.0289347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Disguised28c3,525$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8619041.1%78 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Disguised24c3,321$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.041,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8756…3c83backed Disguised52c3,189$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.838543.5%37 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Disguised50c2,875$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.8976142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Disguised44c2,562$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,123.0195041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Disguised57c2,050$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,16763546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Shopify Rebellion45c2,030$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.6589943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Disguised50c1,976$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.161,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Disguised30c1,891$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.6967760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Disguised40c1,760$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.2647933.6%161 W · 318 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd458…1c90backed Disguised50c1,736$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.913056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Shopify Rebellion60c1,468$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.982,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Disguised49c1,385$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.961,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Shopify Rebellion56c1,242$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.212,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked Shopify Rebellion41c1,200$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71215147%71 W · 80 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53a5…55dfbacked Shopify Rebellion58c1,192$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.1243358.2%252 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Shopify Rebellion28c1,143$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.272,67935.7%957 W · 1,722 L-153.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Disguised58c1,092$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.851,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Shopify Rebellion54c1,088$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.8186251.3%442 W · 420 L+51.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Disguised43c1,087$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.031,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Shopify Rebellion42c1,035$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.347838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked Shopify Rebellion79c1,000$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.0963352%329 W · 304 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed Shopify Rebellion46c966.76$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.8550051.6%258 W · 242 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Disguised59c900$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5311,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Shopify Rebellion44c888$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.281,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x984c…e508backed Shopify Rebellion46c878.77$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.543534.3%12 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-25.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Shopify Rebellion71c833.19$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.761,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Disguised58c788.33$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.746650.9%237 W · 229 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed Shopify Rebellion80c749.99$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.527465.7%180 W · 94 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf29…da00backed Shopify Rebellion66c749.98$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.6421948.4%106 W · 113 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Disguised48c742.28$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.3137754.1%204 W · 173 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Shopify Rebellion73c731.49$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.552848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Shopify Rebellion42c720.43$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.8395048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Disguised40c716.61$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.61,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Shopify Rebellion45c714.21$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.011,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Shopify Rebellion71c704.39$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.721,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Disguised2c700$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1794144.6%420 W · 521 L-2.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4967…4292backed Shopify Rebellion46c700$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37930231.1%94 W · 208 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Shopify Rebellion62c688.78$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.491,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed Shopify Rebellion41c667.99$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.1124835.1%87 W · 161 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Shopify Rebellion71c667.77$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.731,66359.5%990 W · 673 L+98.5wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Disguised58c619.66$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.469539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed Disguised49c600.51$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.2511840.7%48 W · 70 L-11.3wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Disguised63c600.47$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.291,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Disguised55c600$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33028448.6%138 W · 146 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Disguised23c600$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.7360053.2%319 W · 281 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Disguised45c599.9$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.962,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Disguised41c586.78$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.734327.9%12 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3911…30f3backed Shopify Rebellion43c574.77$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.7315953.5%85 W · 74 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2c2…be71backed Shopify Rebellion41c535.24$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+144.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa76c…9db8backed Disguised42c529.26$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Disguised44c523.94$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.912,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Shopify Rebellion45c506.07$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.3445937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…60afbacked Shopify Rebellion46c477.09$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.0939747.9%190 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Disguised26c468.98$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.351,92435.9%691 W · 1,233 L-97.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf529…755fbacked Disguised45c466$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.724137.8%91 W · 150 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Disguised26c450$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9642852.3%224 W · 204 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Disguised47c446.6$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.491,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Shopify Rebellion45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.4427244.1%120 W · 152 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ea…3668backed Shopify Rebellion62c434.37$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.0911246.4%52 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea86…090dbacked Shopify Rebellion49c423.51$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.876349.2%31 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Disguised26c409$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3482836.4%301 W · 527 L-41.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Shopify Rebellion44c403.33$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.8614148.2%68 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb953…5393backed Shopify Rebellion60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16057151.5%294 W · 277 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2266…138abacked Disguised55c399.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2206432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7329…bebdbacked Shopify Rebellion59c384.54$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.0643453.5%232 W · 202 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Disguised52c382.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb16…72bfbacked Shopify Rebellion61c379.14$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.042673.1%19 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Shopify Rebellion58c354.3$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.1115149%74 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd1…17ccbacked Disguised7c349.2$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4660124.1%145 W · 456 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Shopify Rebellion50c336.73$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.6875342.5%320 W · 433 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4e0…ffbebacked Shopify Rebellion67c336.4$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.248767.8%59 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad09…612cbacked Shopify Rebellion46c335.48$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.164456.8%25 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+39.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe136…6d09backed Shopify Rebellion45c331.75$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.7519738.6%76 W · 121 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Shopify Rebellion61c326.59$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.5912747.2%60 W · 67 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Shopify Rebellion49c320.01$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.0933125.7%85 W · 246 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Shopify Rebellion52c318$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6460347.9%289 W · 314 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3b…b968backed Shopify Rebellion64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.541060.5%248 W · 162 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200e…e21dbacked Shopify Rebellion50c308.41$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.4199747.1%470 W · 527 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea7e…2c67backed Disguised11c302.91$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2545051.6%232 W · 218 L+24.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f9…c50bbacked Shopify Rebellion41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1771573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Shopify Rebellion42c300$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1741,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f24…b463backed Shopify Rebellion46c287.63$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.9525149.8%125 W · 126 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83dd…6095backed Shopify Rebellion49c284.01$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.517758.4%45 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Disguised55c275.19$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2725256.3%142 W · 110 L+14.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Disguised50c253.68$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.374250.5%375 W · 367 L-1.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x493a…0bd2backed Shopify Rebellion42c253.57$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.075955.9%33 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Shopify Rebellion42c250$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14528240.4%114 W · 168 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed Shopify Rebellion55c232.73$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.7324656.1%138 W · 108 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Disguised43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10041945.1%189 W · 230 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbd…4476backed Shopify Rebellion45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2225853.5%138 W · 120 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf035…0924backed Shopify Rebellion45c220$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12134050%170 W · 170 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Disguised52c212$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2429952.2%156 W · 143 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.