TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shopify Rebellionof Shopify Rebellion, Disguised
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,660
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,961

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,660 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4337…8882backed Shopify Rebellion42c13,357$5,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,769.341,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Disguised29c9,225$2,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,633.1643442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Disguised59c8,500$5,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,053.7491854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Disguised57c7,796$4,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,44459248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Disguised56c6,024$3,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,381.231,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Shopify Rebellion49c5,350$2,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,738.451,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Shopify Rebellion43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,85014549.7%72 W · 73 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40ea…832fbacked Disguised58c5,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.9820339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Shopify Rebellion44c4,611$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,582.187958.2%46 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Shopify Rebellion43c4,000$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,294.9970456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Disguised45c3,680$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.513538.5%52 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16db…8d0fbacked Disguised57c3,578$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.5324445.1%110 W · 134 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Disguised56c3,451$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.4416047.5%76 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Disguised23c2,689$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.993,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Disguised5c2,630$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.91,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Shopify Rebellion40c2,085$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.4195041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Disguised57c2,045$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.4516942%71 W · 98 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Disguised4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.71910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2db…2f89backed Shopify Rebellion43c2,000$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+83.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Shopify Rebellion40c1,940$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.4276142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Disguised59c1,500$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88548143.2%208 W · 273 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x709e…ef0cbacked Disguised59c1,488$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.652454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Shopify Rebellion45c1,467$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.6721754.8%119 W · 98 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Disguised59c1,396$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.641,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Disguised59c1,200$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70882554.8%452 W · 373 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28a3…f681backed Shopify Rebellion42c1,200$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.9837039.5%146 W · 224 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Shopify Rebellion42c1,198$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.842,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0960…5adcbacked Shopify Rebellion42c1,190$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.4812642.1%53 W · 73 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Shopify Rebellion42c1,113$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.032,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Shopify Rebellion46c1,085$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.0119437.6%73 W · 121 L+0.8wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Shopify Rebellion43c1,039$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.2938640.4%156 W · 230 L-17.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Disguised59c1,012$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.351,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Shopify Rebellion43c1,003$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.77933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Shopify Rebellion43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5708922.5%20 W · 69 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Disguised30c999.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006139.3%24 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Disguised56c999.94$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.971,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Disguised35c999.52$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.182,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Shopify Rebellion44c950$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5367851.3%40 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Disguised2c900$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181487.4%11 W · 137 L+0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf268…960fbacked Disguised56c895.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50047453.4%253 W · 221 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed Disguised61c819.79$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050051.6%258 W · 242 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Shopify Rebellion41c789.95$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.0540145.4%182 W · 219 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Shopify Rebellion44c784.41$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.751,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Shopify Rebellion42c769.97$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.581,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbbb…3df5backed Shopify Rebellion42c763$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.5430151.5%155 W · 146 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Shopify Rebellion77c712.49$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.5929038.6%112 W · 178 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Shopify Rebellion47c704.61$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.71,47748.3%713 W · 764 L+45.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Shopify Rebellion77c666.97$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.861,06347.2%502 W · 561 L-2.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Shopify Rebellion72c607.07$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.161,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Disguised58c606$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.4812850%64 W · 64 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa195…8c92backed Disguised33c600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.047448.6%36 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Shopify Rebellion42c562.36$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.871,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb28…02bbbacked Disguised56c557.94$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.6623057%131 W · 99 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Shopify Rebellion41c550$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.54146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaaa…ca7dbacked Shopify Rebellion73c548.37$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.376159%36 W · 25 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Shopify Rebellion43c545.01$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.567931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed Disguised59c520$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.818467.9%125 W · 59 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Disguised59c520$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.817339.3%68 W · 105 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb5…7115backed Shopify Rebellion73c500.35$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.74875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Shopify Rebellion41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29514148.2%68 W · 73 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18c6…a4dbbacked Disguised58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2908058.8%47 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Shopify Rebellion43c500$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2855549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc20f…ab16backed Shopify Rebellion44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Shopify Rebellion77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1152,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1c4c…9f95backed Shopify Rebellion60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20021249.5%105 W · 107 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Disguised59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29521051.4%108 W · 102 L+0.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Shopify Rebellion74c491.72$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.371,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Shopify Rebellion56c490.06$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.911,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Shopify Rebellion66c476.69$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.481,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Disguised31c472.99$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.511,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Shopify Rebellion45c450.76$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.927558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Shopify Rebellion74c447.21$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.4515149%74 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked Shopify Rebellion45c443.47$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.3115821.5%34 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21b5…1db6backed Shopify Rebellion70c428.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.573764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2269…6233backed Shopify Rebellion71c422.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5425065.6%164 W · 86 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Shopify Rebellion70c409.44$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.031,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x681b…3d79backed Disguised51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20417749.7%88 W · 89 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed Shopify Rebellion71c385.76$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.876363.5%40 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Disguised48c366$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.361,31847.3%624 W · 694 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Disguised59c360$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.427050.7%137 W · 133 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Shopify Rebellion42c360$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.820154.7%110 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Shopify Rebellion43c358.23$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.191,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Disguised58c357.55$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.3849847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7253…0558backed Disguised56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018236.8%67 W · 115 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c35…7764backed Disguised56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003473.5%25 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Shopify Rebellion43c353.05$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.248549.4%42 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf479…2d49backed Disguised57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xff48…e373backed Disguised11c350$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.265133.3%17 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9a2…b3cdbacked Disguised58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007140.8%29 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Disguised59c340$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.628852.1%150 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec9…b8abbacked Shopify Rebellion44c335$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.633153.2%176 W · 155 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f05…85c5backed Disguised31c316.13$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9839861.8%246 W · 152 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Shopify Rebellion40c312.5$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.544851.8%232 W · 216 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Disguised32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Disguised45c310.85$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14025332%81 W · 172 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shopify Rebellion42c300.99$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.441,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca4…aa92backed Shopify Rebellion44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1683551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd33a…1fe2backed Shopify Rebellion47c295.21$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.2112340.7%50 W · 73 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Shopify Rebellion43c288$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.1632941%135 W · 194 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Disguised25c260.05$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.122,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.