MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x040887074fb3f1fbc279365eb70eb6ef3a3967a1a18c2f49c20bdbe4278b6101
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc365…2e53backed New York Mets | 57c | 25,627$14,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,652.18 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 8,750$5,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,086.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 50c | 6,850$3,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,443.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 4,658$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,992.26 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +9.8wins | +0.36per pick | 56cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 1,406$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.79 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 1,202$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Chicago Cubs | 34c | 994$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.04 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 966.62$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.63 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 694.3$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.75 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 580.76$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.72 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 571.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.42 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets | 62c | 540$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Mets | 30c | 538.96$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 33c | 427.05$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 420$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 324.86$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.91 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 52c | 316$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.09 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 63c | 285.6$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.93 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed New York Mets | 62c | 254$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.48 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 212.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 186.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.44 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 51c | 164$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 55c | 146.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 140.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 136.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…6d74backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 104.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 104$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked New York Mets | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 50c | 94.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked New York Mets | 63c | 93.49$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed New York Mets | 23c | 92.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 88.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 54.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago Cubs | 59c | 51.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc9…d80bbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 50.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked New York Mets | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8563…5e98backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.0wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3112…3fcdbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…862abacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.34per pick | 58cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago Cubs | 52c | 49.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39d…a88bbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 48.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 47.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 42.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed New York Mets | 65c | 38.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked New York Mets | 53c | 37.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 33.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed New York Mets | 49c | 25.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed New York Mets | 55c | 23.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked New York Mets | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked New York Mets | 65c | 19.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed New York Mets | 64c | 18.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.