MLB · resolved market

Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb38a203b0bb8b6b27a9e10563851b905dd358d4e1a0bb6367a0a986d46c40a53

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $57,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $57,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,674 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Under	54c	15,057$8,193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,193.44	8,594	52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L	+508.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Over	46c	12,518$5,758 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,759.77	448	51.6%231 W · 217 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	54c	9,887$5,320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,320.38	12,328	46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L	-66.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Over	47c	7,777$3,655 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,121.8	479	53.2%255 W · 224 L	+18.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Over	48c	6,380$3,062 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,317.58	237	38%90 W · 147 L	-9.2wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under	54c	3,480$1,879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,879.2	1,922	53.4%1,027 W · 895 L	+28.0wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed Over	49c	2,760$1,352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,407.7	27	92.6%25 W · 2 L	+9.8wins	+0.36per pick	56cpaid	+72.3%equal weight	71+0.19 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	47c	1,600$751 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$848.92	6,999	50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	52c	1,577$812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$812.46	4,515	48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L	-46.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Over	45c	1,300$585 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$715.06	168	46.4%78 W · 90 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Over	48c	1,250$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$650	175	46.9%82 W · 93 L	-9.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	46c	1,220$561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$658.87	1,586	48.5%770 W · 816 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Under	54c	1,077$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.77	686	52.9%363 W · 323 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over	46c	1,000$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540	1,845	50.7%936 W · 909 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Over	46c	807.83$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.23	792	47.5%376 W · 416 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Under	54c	623.96$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.88	573	46.9%269 W · 304 L	+14.6wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under	53c	534.38$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.22	614	50.8%312 W · 302 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over	47c	432.02$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.97	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	45c	420$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231	2,311	51%1,179 W · 1,132 L	+25.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c6…3dd2backed Under	53c	377.36$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	71	42.3%30 W · 41 L	-5.9wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dff…7fecbacked Under	55c	370.54$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.66	95	43.2%41 W · 54 L	-6.9wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Under	53c	339.62$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	509	49.5%252 W · 257 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Over	47c	280.26$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.54	233	51.1%119 W · 114 L	+11.4wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	52c	242.89$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.33	11,519	52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L	+213.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	45c	240$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132	486	53.7%261 W · 225 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd58d…f0e0backed Under	54c	238.12$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.36	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Over	48c	208$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.16	925	54.1%500 W · 425 L	+23.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa599…5230backed Over	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Under	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	667	48.7%325 W · 342 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Under	52c	183.79$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.57	536	44.6%239 W · 297 L	-11.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed Over	47c	179.99$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.4	738	49.3%364 W · 374 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	46c	155.17$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.14	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa4f…b174backed Under	54c	154.98$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.38	407	53.3%217 W · 190 L	+9.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over	47c	149.99$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.5	2,413	49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L	+22.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb96…ea06backed Over	49c	147.96$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.46	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-3.2wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa39d…a88bbacked Over	49c	143.14$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+121.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Under	52c	136.96$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.22	859	49.1%422 W · 437 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd17a…ffcabacked Under	53c	132.08$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	51	49%25 W · 26 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over	47c	110.11$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.36	676	53.1%359 W · 317 L	+29.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	1,279	51.2%655 W · 624 L	-19.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	999	47.5%475 W · 524 L	-3.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbc9…d80bbacked Over	49c	93.59$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.73	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7693…470fbacked Under	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	213	54.5%116 W · 97 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under	54c	92.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56f6…cda7backed Under	54c	92.02$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	93	47.3%44 W · 49 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000a…6cf7backed Under	55c	89.16$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.04	252	60.7%153 W · 99 L	+17.1wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc85…aa54backed Under	54c	88.69$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.33	242	43%104 W · 138 L	-12.2wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf67d…2de1backed Under	53c	87.86$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.56	74	44.6%33 W · 41 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb68c…7ef8backed Under	53c	75.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+2.4wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17be…e5b4backed Under	55c	74.62$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	462	51.7%239 W · 223 L	+14.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x117b…f017backed Under	54c	74.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-4.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-34%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Under	56c	71.6$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.34	765	58%444 W · 321 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38ef…8800backed Over	46c	70.13$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.87	425	48.2%205 W · 220 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Under	52c	65$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	785	50.2%394 W · 391 L	+2.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under	68c	64.11$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.6	475	52.4%249 W · 226 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Over	47c	60$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.8	455	45.7%208 W · 247 L	-11.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Under	53c	58.15$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.82	273	45.4%124 W · 149 L	-13.7wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	47c	56.66$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.22	2,995	47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L	+12.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55d6…1f24backed Under	54c	53.85$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.88	312	58%181 W · 131 L	+15.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Under	54c	53$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.82	830	53%440 W · 390 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x982c…0d6ebacked Over	49c	51.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.02	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Over	47c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	1,172	49.1%575 W · 597 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2725…e7d1backed Over	47c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.57	358	49.4%177 W · 181 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8563…5e98backed Over	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	11	90.9%10 W · 1 L	+4.0wins	+0.36per pick	55cpaid	+67.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3112…3fcdbacked Over	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+3.2wins	+0.36per pick	53cpaid	+62.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6f70…862abacked Over	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	13	92.3%12 W · 1 L	+4.4wins	+0.34per pick	58cpaid	+62.3%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4b07…5f54backed Under	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	65	46.2%30 W · 35 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under	53c	49.83$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.41	445	53.5%238 W · 207 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Over	47c	49.36$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.18	2,104	51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Under	55c	43.05$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.68	2,223	55.4%1,231 W · 992 L	+73.9wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcd…724dbacked Under	54c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	102	49%50 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Over	47c	39$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.67	392	50.3%197 W · 195 L	+18.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Under	54c	38.87$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.97	390	51.5%201 W · 189 L	+7.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8263…e0f1backed Under	54c	38.8$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	347	54.8%190 W · 157 L	+12.5wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Under	54c	38.64$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.97	399	53.6%214 W · 185 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e53…922dbacked Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	308	48.1%148 W · 160 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over	47c	38.34$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.32	3,841	42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	60c	38$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.06	4,405	44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L	+80.0wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cf…6659backed Under	54c	37.19$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Over	45c	35$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.25	1,828	54.1%989 W · 839 L	+24.9wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	40c	30.95$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	5,812	43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L	-188.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…f218backed Under	54c	30.11$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.31	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	59cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15a7…5ed1backed Under	55c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	247	63.6%157 W · 90 L	+12.8wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed Under	55c	29.18$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	112	55.4%62 W · 50 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under	54c	28.78$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.61	701	54.2%380 W · 321 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf15…1068backed Over	46c	25.52$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.78	149	51.7%77 W · 72 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Over	47c	24.99$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	528	52.1%275 W · 253 L	+13.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3d…f024backed Under	55c	21.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c25…6bbcbacked Under	55c	21.42$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.78	199	60.3%120 W · 79 L	+21.9wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsChicago Cubs won
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. New York MetsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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