TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Mariners vs. Astros

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Marinersof Mariners, Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$431,705
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$403,316

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,705 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7435…a620backed Astros44c240,416$106,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106,009.0928646.5%133 W · 153 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Mariners56c93,122$52,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,973.529462.8%59 W · 35 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Mariners55c73,892$40,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,221.638751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Mariners56c45,206$25,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,890.561,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Astros3c37,925$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.7515353.6%82 W · 71 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Astros45c36,946$16,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,701.099146.2%42 W · 49 L-11.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-25.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Mariners57c25,960$14,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,162.851,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Mariners58c21,731$12,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,223.137058.6%41 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Astros42c16,422$6,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,897.0426949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Mariners56c15,820$8,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,022.271,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Mariners57c8,548$4,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,675.4430255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Mariners62c8,500$5,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,191.591,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Mariners55c7,556$4,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,426.6178445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb63d…9dd6backed Astros43c5,006$2,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,152.582665.4%17 W · 9 L+4.8wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+46.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Astros0c4,640$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.064754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Mariners56c4,242$2,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.921847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Mariners56c3,961$2,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,742.7734245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bc…e520backed Mariners57c3,814$2,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.0227953.4%149 W · 130 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Astros4c3,512$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.5316725.1%42 W · 125 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Astros43c3,245$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.3573149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7784…5b6dbacked Mariners58c3,150$1,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3235752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Astros44c2,581$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.7316551.5%85 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Astros1c2,546$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.068762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Astros42c2,387$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.5156451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd666…a3fbbacked Astros43c2,300$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9891050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Astros44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00028042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4f…446cbacked Mariners56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.991963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Astros3c1,948$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Astros42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.9832042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8919…57e8backed Astros43c1,400$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd428…6368backed Mariners57c1,378$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.7339056.9%222 W · 168 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Astros27c1,181$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.141,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Mariners78c1,156$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.149,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mariners56c1,125$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49573352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Astros4c1,120$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.181822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-44.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Astros45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50063052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Astros43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.0422142.1%93 W · 128 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Astros45c1,000$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.4183248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a32…6d7ebacked Mariners56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4409651%49 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa468…816ebacked Mariners58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4209349.5%46 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Astros35c928.57$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32317136.8%63 W · 108 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Astros5c895$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7747745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Astros44c870.32$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.9414047.9%67 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Mariners55c756.08$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.031,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Mariners56c736.01$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.851,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Astros3c733.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Mariners54c704.82$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.1819239.1%75 W · 117 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa501…9f0fbacked Astros35c701.26$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.454436.4%16 W · 28 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe9ce…316ebacked Astros14c700$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.816036.3%58 W · 102 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3ad…9d38backed Astros45c666.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017045.3%77 W · 93 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Astros45c625.57$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27957744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Astros42c625$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.550843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked Mariners57c616.04$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.1514055.7%78 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Mariners57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25842452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Mariners60c592.44$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.216,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked Mariners58c581.15$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.085352.8%28 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Astros42c573.39$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.8251347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Astros43c550$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.51,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Astros43c550$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.598149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Astros16c516.46$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0822312.1%27 W · 196 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ea1…56f2backed Astros42c510$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.212436.3%45 W · 79 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Astros43c500.01$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2151,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccfb…376ebacked Astros43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Astros12c499.09$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.95852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781e…2484backed Astros43c483.28$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.811625%4 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c7e…d24bbacked Mariners58c482.77$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.771478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick54cpaid+37.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Astros53c459$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.2726650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2408…9de9backed Mariners57c451.12$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.982437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Astros42c404$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.6844643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Mariners56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17613242.4%56 W · 76 L-14.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-22%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xba56…b1e3backed Astros45c388.89$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1755742.1%24 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Mariners56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1456351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Astros25c325.62$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8057545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Astros43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12966751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7555…eb08backed Mariners68c294.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.062161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Astros6c260$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3421767.7%147 W · 70 L+36.1wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2fae…9954backed Astros46c259.96$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.681957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Astros43c251.12$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.981,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe11c…49efbacked Astros43c248.84$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10712949.6%64 W · 65 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Astros44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10061346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Astros44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c6d…1e3dbacked Astros44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.5wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-38.7%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Astros44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040144.1%177 W · 224 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee1d…7a12backed Astros47c220.1$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.33141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89d1…6448backed Mariners58c206.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6496…8846backed Astros7c200.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.571833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Mariners56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8892754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Mariners57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8678454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3ba…d03cbacked Mariners57c181.93$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.232965.5%19 W · 10 L+4.6wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+36.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4f97…13d2backed Astros44c181.7$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5085…ab8fbacked Mariners56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.57450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c88…5685backed Mariners57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.447753.2%41 W · 36 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08d1…7ddabacked Mariners57c173.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.934839.6%19 W · 29 L-8.0wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-29.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7474…4ebabacked Mariners58c170.86$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.763941%16 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Mariners57c157.08$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5415644.9%70 W · 86 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Mariners56c146$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6420747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd287…7485backed Mariners56c142.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8654352.3%284 W · 259 L+27.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Astros44c140$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.933140.2%133 W · 198 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Astros43c139.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6025548.6%124 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e34…d38bbacked Mariners57c130$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.423957.7%138 W · 101 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.