TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Reds vs. Guardians

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Redsof Reds, Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$120,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,515

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,452 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x889e…09e0backed Reds41c20,575$8,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,139.1127948.4%135 W · 144 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Guardians59c15,995$9,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,437.0520850%104 W · 104 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60f5…d984backed Reds39c9,999$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,099.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f1f…4a50backed Guardians61c9,995$6,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,096.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…77bfbacked Reds41c5,179$2,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,061.715553.5%83 W · 72 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Guardians44c4,146$1,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.599,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians59c3,965$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.532,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Guardians61c3,489$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.798149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Reds36c2,964$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.7697950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Reds40c2,935$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,755.2395850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x65a2…962abacked Guardians63c2,796$1,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,757.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Reds39c2,501$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.421,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Guardians33c2,343$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.361,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians14c2,125$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.232,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Guardians62c2,096$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.3217754.8%97 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Guardians59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1805349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Guardians59c1,948$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.1723752.7%125 W · 112 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Guardians58c1,751$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.341,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcce…136abacked Guardians44c1,700$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75029240.8%119 W · 173 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Guardians59c1,692$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.9976456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Guardians60c1,657$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00031248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b6f…3838backed Reds54c1,442$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.6340547.4%192 W · 213 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Guardians59c1,256$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.9543654.8%239 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Guardians59c1,232$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.141,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Guardians4c1,125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025511.8%30 W · 225 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Reds64c1,117$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.9286751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Guardians59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5901,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Reds41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59037446.8%175 W · 199 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Reds38c999.97$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.9893240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Guardians58c999.79$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.8849250.4%248 W · 244 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Reds37c983.94$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.885,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1009…9ad0backed Guardians60c844.1$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.464652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Reds40c800$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48020450.5%103 W · 101 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Guardians59c764.38$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.9841643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31c8…c481backed Reds41c738.24$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.561838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick60cpaid-38%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x38ba…92f7backed Reds68c736.76$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.769246.7%43 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Guardians18c647.97$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.872488.9%22 W · 226 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-77.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb26…94ddbacked Guardians12c610.48$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7812314.6%18 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+83.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Reds38c599.99$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.9933852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Guardians58c595.24$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.241,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf89f…e5a8backed Guardians61c555.5$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.8620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95ea…d560backed Reds39c555.5$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Guardians36c549.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017136.8%63 W · 108 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Reds62c535$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.168656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Guardians43c513.18$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.6896133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Reds42c488$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.044452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Reds42c476.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.1939436%142 W · 252 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0b…44fdbacked Guardians40c439.85$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Guardians16c431$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8312335%43 W · 80 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcd…6bddbacked Reds76c423.09$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0917558.9%103 W · 72 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Reds38c422.51$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.3171751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbec2…10dabacked Guardians36c421.89$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.421450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Reds42c400$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23232754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe768…9d43backed Reds55c399.18$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.7519650.5%99 W · 97 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Guardians26c379.41$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2663942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…52bcbacked Guardians58c352.24$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.77425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Guardians26c350$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8354941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Reds40c349.96$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.981,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e12…7348backed Guardians62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038455.7%214 W · 170 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Guardians42c311.66$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.282,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Reds61c310$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.951953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae09…fa6dbacked Guardians58c295$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.17549.3%37 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Reds34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1247348.8%231 W · 242 L-22.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd59…c3a5backed Reds34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1213450%67 W · 67 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Reds40c283.34$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.885047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Reds43c267$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5817239.5%68 W · 104 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Reds39c263$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.4399951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Reds70c256.98$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0915644.9%70 W · 86 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+25.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf47d…f295backed Reds40c251.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.742751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians59c249.9$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.441,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Guardians46c248.92$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.364,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49f7…046bbacked Guardians60c245$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14723753.2%126 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49ce…13eebacked Reds41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.96538.5%25 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2339…e984backed Guardians59c243.74$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.811346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Guardians17c230.56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.771,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Reds73c207.63$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1468769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x051d…6980backed Guardians38c202.22$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7720343.8%89 W · 114 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88cf…7d31backed Guardians60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12019849.5%98 W · 100 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Reds39c199.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.993,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked Guardians53c187.24$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1219852.5%104 W · 94 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Reds42c179.21$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.6270946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf3…8bd3backed Reds40c175$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb260…a44ebacked Guardians62c170.7$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.575653.6%30 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Guardians59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Guardians24c168.27$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.081,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6e…5f22backed Guardians60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians61c165.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Guardians49c164$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9265549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Guardians60c160$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9654048.3%261 W · 279 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9712…0c47backed Guardians35c150$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.510240.2%41 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae3f…12fabacked Guardians42c150$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6312025.8%31 W · 89 L-15.3wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Reds55c142.26$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7854441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb091…2017backed Reds79c119.32$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2331254.5%170 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c67…13d1backed Reds42c118.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.62657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Reds41c113$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.471,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds41c106$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.542,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Reds39c101.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.971,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Reds40c100.9$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2940352.4%211 W · 192 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fd7…cb0bbacked Reds41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.32per pick50cpaid-58.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.