NFL · resolved market
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x059b2ce55b8446d911ad36b97e47a1ce1241d1b4a07a6941278ff89eaffe1e6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolphinsof Buccaneers, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Buccaneers | 62c | 1,540$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.8 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Dolphins | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Dolphins | 36c | 1,044$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.03 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…1df2backed Buccaneers | 63c | 957.28$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.01 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Dolphins | 34c | 415.84$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.45 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Buccaneers | 66c | 379.77$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.65 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Buccaneers | 65c | 300.46$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Dolphins | 35c | 182$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Dolphins | 56c | 127$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Dolphins | 35c | 112$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Buccaneers | 65c | 99.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Dolphins | 35c | 98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Dolphins | 44c | 82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Dolphins | 36c | 74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Buccaneers | 63c | 72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Buccaneers | 40c | 69.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Buccaneers | 41c | 60.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Dolphins | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…d4e3backed Buccaneers | 60c | 59.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Dolphins | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Dolphins | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Dolphins | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Buccaneers | 65c | 48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 58cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked Buccaneers | 64c | 47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Buccaneers | 65c | 46.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Buccaneers | 65c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 56cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Buccaneers | 65c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Dolphins | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Dolphins | 36c | 38.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Buccaneers | 65c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Dolphins | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…d6a2backed Buccaneers | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Buccaneers | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Buccaneers | 66c | 33.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Dolphins | 35c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Buccaneers | 65c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Buccaneers | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Buccaneers | 42c | 26.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Buccaneers | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Buccaneers | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Buccaneers | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…dc5bbacked Buccaneers | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Buccaneers | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Buccaneers | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Dolphins won
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Dolphins won
- Buccaneers vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: 1H MoneylineDolphins won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 43.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 44.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 45.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 46.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.