NFL · resolved market
Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3798da921319b497d797b9a6caeed734ca02b98c6a9a2fa8566a832e296d3ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolphinsof Buccaneers, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Dolphins | 55c | 16,412$9,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,385.44 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Buccaneers | 47c | 14,685$6,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,883.48 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Dolphins | 53c | 12,738$6,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,986.88 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Buccaneers | 45c | 9,909$4,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,458.94 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Buccaneers | 45c | 5,110$2,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.41 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Buccaneers | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Dolphins | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Buccaneers | 44c | 2,800$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Buccaneers | 45c | 2,036$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.52 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Dolphins | 56c | 1,955$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.1 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Dolphins | 53c | 1,954$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.72 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0fc6backed Dolphins | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Dolphins | 56c | 1,057$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.14 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Buccaneers | 45c | 992.26$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.11 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Dolphins | 54c | 956.69$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.08 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…c3eabacked Dolphins | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Dolphins | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…d693backed Dolphins | 56c | 556.12$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Buccaneers | 42c | 485.79$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.07 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Buccaneers | 46c | 442$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.32 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Buccaneers | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…59fabacked Buccaneers | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Buccaneers | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Buccaneers | 46c | 280$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Dolphins | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Dolphins | 55c | 222$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Dolphins | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Dolphins | 55c | 181.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Buccaneers | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4465…baafbacked Dolphins | 54c | 145.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…18cabacked Dolphins | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Buccaneers | 28c | 78.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Buccaneers | 46c | 74.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…52bcbacked Dolphins | 57c | 63.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Dolphins | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Buccaneers | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Buccaneers | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Buccaneers | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Dolphins | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Buccaneers | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Dolphins | 68c | 51.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Buccaneers | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Dolphins | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Buccaneers | 46c | 44.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Buccaneers | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Dolphins | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1c…a512backed Dolphins | 54c | 37.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Buccaneers | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Dolphins | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Buccaneers | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Buccaneers | 45c | 24.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Buccaneers | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Dolphins won
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Dolphins won
- Buccaneers vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: 1H MoneylineDolphins won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 43.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 44.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 45.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 46.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.