NFL · resolved market
Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1eac6d7b3a8d5239bdb43d6367515042e32577909a607b966eb2bb257c337f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolphinsof Buccaneers, Dolphins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Buccaneers | 50c | 31,577$15,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,788.65 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Dolphins | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Dolphins | 48c | 9,389$4,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,881.85 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Buccaneers | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,570 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dolphins | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Dolphins | 50c | 5,951$2,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,975.49 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Buccaneers | 52c | 5,354$2,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,776.66 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Buccaneers | 52c | 5,331$2,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,771.95 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Dolphins | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Dolphins | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Buccaneers | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Dolphins | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Dolphins | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Buccaneers | 51c | 2,464$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.38 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Buccaneers | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…3ba7backed Buccaneers | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Buccaneers | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Buccaneers | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Dolphins | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Dolphins | 50c | 286$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Buccaneers | 52c | 204.75$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Buccaneers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…eef8backed Dolphins | 50c | 170.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa6…0b3bbacked Dolphins | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Dolphins | 49c | 143.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Dolphins | 46c | 94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Dolphins | 46c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Buccaneers | 52c | 70.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Buccaneers | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Buccaneers | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Buccaneers | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Dolphins | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Buccaneers | 52c | 58.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Buccaneers | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…52bcbacked Dolphins | 50c | 41.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Buccaneers | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Buccaneers | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Buccaneers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Buccaneers | 51c | 30.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Dolphins | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Buccaneers | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Buccaneers | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Buccaneers | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c82…c8ccbacked Dolphins | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Dolphins won
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Dolphins won
- Buccaneers vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: 1H MoneylineDolphins won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 43.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 44.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 45.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 46.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.