NFL · resolved market
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x809d70d0a4af9cd46433438344073fd8a28e6a347589abfd82ca82e016582882
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 52c | 7,944$4,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,812.94 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Over | 49c | 5,113$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 4,915$2,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,408.13 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 4,155$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.43 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 4,071$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.69 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 3,619$1,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.03 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 52c | 2,700$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 48c | 1,900$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.12 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Over | 50c | 548$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 53c | 534.04$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 46c | 205.28$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 159.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Over | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa6…0b3bbacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 53c | 65.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Over | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 23.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 51c | 19.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Dolphins won
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Dolphins won
- Buccaneers vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: 1H MoneylineDolphins won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 43.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 45.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 46.5Under won
- Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.