Token Launches · resolved market
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05c42d0760ce58828ff324e7faa0042db562391419e15fd21f0efb889b505290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 1c | 5,297$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +470.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 37c | 4,614$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe645…2ed2backed No | 35c | 3,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…4adbbacked No | 43c | 2,593$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…75bebacked Yes | 57c | 2,593$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d5…d0d7backed Yes | 56c | 2,272$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a47…9601backed No | 44c | 2,272$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 44c | 2,203$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…9b0fbacked Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 64c | 1,961$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.53 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 79c | 1,447$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,210$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 1,200$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.98 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 58c | 1,066$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…9216backed No | 57c | 950$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad0…37b9backed Yes | 43c | 950$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…0939backed Yes | 41c | 616.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked Yes | 43c | 608.74$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…8ee3backed No | 51c | 598$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…59d0backed Yes | 49c | 598$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5f…1aecbacked No | 46c | 541.1$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2487…6530backed Yes | 54c | 541.1$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 58c | 402.26$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…d3c4backed No | 68c | 365$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 35c | 327.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…8ff1backed Yes | 32c | 290$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 53c | 284.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…31a2backed No | 49c | 249$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…a761backed Yes | 32c | 209.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…8115backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…9c96backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +113%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…bc53backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…93a5backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 70c | 197$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 53c | 194$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 60c | 190$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb561…86f8backed Yes | 22c | 171.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…3b9abacked Yes | 73c | 168.49$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…7794backed Yes | 43c | 160.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…5640backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 146.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed No | 57c | 135.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…6334backed No | 68c | 105$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…2fa9backed No | 44c | 99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ed…2a77backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…480abacked Yes | 57c | 88.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 81.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a0…b9ebbacked Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2670…7a9dbacked Yes | 57c | 68.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d8…0432backed Yes | 46c | 63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 41c | 62.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85bc…f829backed Yes | 48c | 51.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066c…475fbacked No | 64c | 51.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…fd6dbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7282…5cffbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9093…9f7dbacked Yes | 55c | 46.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…0601backed Yes | 57c | 45.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe921…f7e9backed No | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7f…186abacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…7ca7backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…ee09backed Yes | 44c | 34.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…e327backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked Yes | 48c | 28.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4038…6e58backed Yes | 66c | 27.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…9c42backed No | 45c | 24.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb88d…3650backed Yes | 59c | 23.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…48f2backed Yes | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed5…7deabacked Yes | 60c | 22.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 60c | 20.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e47backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…a113backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694a…1ba5backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5909…71cebacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.