MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05c4feaa2dc0871b8eb41093e4851c3dc13fe16574e36b43e98fb0329254fd12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 24,163$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,162.7 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 9,826$5,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,517.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 9,199$5,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,495.72 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 9,162$3,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,481.31 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 8,926$5,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,266.34 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 7,227$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,227 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 4,881$2,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,881.09 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 3,545$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,056.05 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 1,512$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 51c | 1,259$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 1,024$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.16 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 731.19$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.67 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 668.61$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.48 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed San Francisco Giants | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 444.01$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.87 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Atlanta Braves | 74c | 407.01$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Atlanta Braves | 79c | 355$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed San Francisco Giants | 49c | 327.28$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.73 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 320.02$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.02 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed San Francisco Giants | 21c | 291$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked San Francisco Giants | 33c | 287.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 240$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 66c | 234.74$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 200.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 180$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 174.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 164.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 26c | 121$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Atlanta Braves | 72c | 108.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 101.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed San Francisco Giants | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed San Francisco Giants | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Atlanta Braves | 40c | 97.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 87.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Atlanta Braves | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Atlanta Braves | 41c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Atlanta Braves | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Atlanta Braves | 31c | 37.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 35.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 34.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 27.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 24.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 24.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed San Francisco Giants | 70c | 23.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…aeb3backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 19.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…4724backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 60cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 17.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Atlanta Braves | 73c | 15.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco GiantsAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.