NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0612af4b0777b7ba532e48a90e0f6b33ecdaa234e17c4a5ced117121a40c16ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa965…3565backed Thunder | 25c | 2,279$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.43 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…18d2backed Jazz | 71c | 1,312$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.99 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 4c | 1,202$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…6f30backed Jazz | 70c | 1,200$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Thunder | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Thunder | 31c | 586$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.34 | 156 | 56.4%88 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Jazz | 78c | 500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Jazz | 73c | 455.79$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.66 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder | 31c | 404$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.76 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Jazz | 76c | 323.68$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…3183backed Jazz | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Jazz | 78c | 188.46$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 211 | 64.5%136 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215c…30b8backed Thunder | 26c | 148$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…7a8dbacked Thunder | 27c | 141$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f2…ea15backed Jazz | 74c | 134$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…7762backed Jazz | 73c | 126$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4d…2051backed Thunder | 26c | 123$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Thunder | 30c | 112.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Jazz | 73c | 110$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…ea6fbacked Jazz | 74c | 109$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Jazz | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8657…5741backed Jazz | 36c | 56.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 43.7%110 W · 142 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Jazz | 78c | 53.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Thunder | 35c | 50.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed Jazz | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 68.6%116 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…cf41backed Jazz | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Jazz | 61c | 22.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6366…8ddebacked Jazz | 76c | 19.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -48%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…a2bebacked Jazz | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…5168backed Jazz | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa97…478abacked Jazz | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. JazzThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.