NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29fc014eedd97e5397c9078580b232355caa55edc4612bc527b06f24a84928aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8955…b51dbacked Over | 45c | 5,382$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5a…613dbacked Under | 55c | 5,381$2,951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 56c | 3,720$2,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.27 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 43c | 2,208$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.44 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Under | 58c | 1,726$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.86 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 28c | 972$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.92 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 746$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.24 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Under | 64c | 605.97$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.97 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Under | 65c | 589.3$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.33 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 44c | 501.79$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.59 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 490.02$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…821fbacked Under | 77c | 260.42$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 228.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Under | 68c | 155$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 38c | 122.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 31c | 121.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd550…c36cbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c6…c164backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…8fd2backed Over | 31c | 98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 89.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00df…701bbacked Over | 40c | 75.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5405…9ab8backed Under | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 20c | 67.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Under | 64c | 51.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 47c | 30.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…cf41backed Under | 64c | 28.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…fa14backed Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Under | 76c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…cd4abacked Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…43b6backed Under | 80c | 17.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. JazzThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.