TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,713
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,713 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25cc…9297backed Jazz47c4,000$1,880 inLost-$1,88016942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Jazz52c2,895$1,500 inLost-$1,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder49c2,122$1,040 inWon+$1,081.189,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Thunder54c2,000$1,080 inWon+$92022053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Jazz47c1,359$643 inLost-$643.052,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Jazz52c1,067$555 inLost-$554.7551753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb27…18d2backed Thunder48c1,000$480 inWon+$5202250%11 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Thunder49c973.57$475 inWon+$498.542,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Thunder53c927.36$492 inWon+$434.941,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder48c748.49$359 inWon+$389.123,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Thunder47c720$338 inWon+$381.669852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Jazz49c589.8$289 inLost-$28927939.8%111 W · 168 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55c4…0121backed Thunder47c534.04$251 inWon+$283.043271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+28%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz53c529$280 inLost-$280.372,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder50c291$146 inWon+$145.218,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Thunder50c206.04$103 inWon+$103.0295049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Jazz52c201.92$105 inLost-$10529346.4%136 W · 157 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Jazz48c199.99$96 inLost-$9682440.4%333 W · 491 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…8530backed Jazz50c170$85 inLost-$8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd976…7050backed Thunder53c132.08$70 inWon+$62.081241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Jazz47c100$47 inLost-$471,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09e3…cf81backed Thunder49c100$49 inWon+$5118955%104 W · 85 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf2d…1100backed Jazz51c98.04$50 inLost-$505257.7%30 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f17…2332backed Thunder48c83.33$40 inWon+$43.3312155.4%67 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x744b…848ebacked Jazz54c80.78$44 inLost-$43.6214552.4%76 W · 69 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Jazz50c80$40 inLost-$4016346.6%76 W · 87 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Thunder54c78.83$43 inWon+$36.2619957.8%115 W · 84 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf27f…0329backed Jazz50c74$37 inLost-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Thunder55c70$39 inWon+$31.517444.3%77 W · 97 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Thunder47c65.68$31 inWon+$34.8152643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Thunder50c60$30 inWon+$3012550.4%63 W · 62 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Jazz46c50.49$23 inLost-$23.232,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x060f…ddffbacked Thunder53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder47c28$13 inWon+$14.843,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.