NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x295c172b6d55a38bbe05b28d28ad09445d45f5dbb459e47f25b930857efabd0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 53c | 8,535$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,035.29 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Over | 47c | 3,990$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,861.97 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 3,077$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 1,004$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.15 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 961$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.89 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 663.2$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.28 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 54c | 550$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9239…a358backed Over | 53c | 550$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 46c | 518$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.9 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…a643backed Under | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 400$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 379.01$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.71 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 49c | 352.13$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.54 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5a…613dbacked Under | 47c | 346.81$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 321.44$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.47 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…0c7dbacked Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 53c | 117$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Under | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf9…fbc2backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…80c9backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 52c | 22.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. JazzThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.