NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x679d39971054bc7ea0cda7750d9e9350fab854bdb1ce3bcb162fd138d8a7fe0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71ea…a8eebacked Over | 53c | 14,000$7,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,420 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd234…90b0backed Under | 47c | 14,000$6,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,420 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 6,788$3,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,516.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 50c | 2,491$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.61 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 49c | 1,090$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.57 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 439.13$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.78 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 45c | 265$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.75 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 45c | 186$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 146$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 29c | 81.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…b756backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…1633backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…d2ecbacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 50c | 57.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 51c | 46.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 51c | 35.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 30.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…33bfbacked Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Over | 49c | 21.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…9ef1backed Over | 49c | 20.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…83a0backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. JazzThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.