NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H Moneyline

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38177ecc309204d3382dc7de64592e0da1da4169ad18438c624d55acd5d81586

Rebuilt 13 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Thunderof Thunder, Jazz
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $544
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $544

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $544 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 6 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5d86…3450backed Jazz	28c	143$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222a…7a8dbacked Jazz	28c	134$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.52	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	38cpaid	+58.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49e8…b1b0backed Thunder	72c	130$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3268…f230backed Thunder	72c	128$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.84	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Thunder	75c	66.67$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.67	112	51.8%58 W · 54 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Jazz	25c	66.67$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.67	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H Moneyline

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event