NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6256b19af9765efdb2793b42031a2d26580f0799554478c786990b4fef49d197
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Over | 46c | 55,690$25,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,433.51 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 24,413$12,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,564.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 46c | 20,440$9,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,400 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 57c | 12,313$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,312.66 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 54c | 11,902$6,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,486.8 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 9,521$5,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,379.67 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 56c | 6,010$3,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,614.4 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 5,695$2,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.05 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 56c | 3,760$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.2 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…8e9dbacked Over | 54c | 3,689$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5a…613dbacked Under | 44c | 3,682$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Under | 54c | 2,486$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.6 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 2,309$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.57 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 57c | 1,746$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 54c | 1,308$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.58 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…b51dbacked Under | 51c | 961.76$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 55c | 797.9$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.06 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Under | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 660.2$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.7 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 54c | 624$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.04 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Over | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 517$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.82 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 46c | 487$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.78 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 3c | 430$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 417$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.52 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 340.23$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 49c | 310.2$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.2 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…19c6backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 45c | 277.53$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 40c | 227.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bf…147ebacked Over | 46c | 222.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 11c | 172.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd2…3036backed Over | 51c | 167.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 45c | 162.87$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 59c | 155$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Under | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8c…ba40backed Under | 76c | 131.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 54c | 109.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…754abacked Under | 55c | 93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 36c | 79.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 56c | 69.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…1852backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…6ea7backed Under | 54c | 53.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…e21abacked Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…6aa2backed Over | 25c | 49.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…253cbacked Over | 46c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 47.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 45.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…140fbacked Under | 48c | 38.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 53c | 28.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x857d…9f81backed Under | 74c | 28.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e12…dd1dbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 54c | 19.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. JazzThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.