NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc794539a65eae009f33d01cbe5fd0edc998eb020740623c46a30c168751b53ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x869b…c625backed Over | 50c | 42,168$20,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,962.34 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 17,410$8,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,705 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 6,989$3,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,462.18 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 50c | 5,584$2,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,792.15 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Under | 52c | 4,519$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,169.23 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Under | 50c | 4,030$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,015 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 51c | 3,850$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,886.5 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 50c | 2,821$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.71 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 2,582$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.9 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a5…40dabacked Over | 47c | 2,188$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Under | 56c | 1,409$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.92 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Under | 51c | 1,373$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.54 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 698$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 52c | 381.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 50c | 280$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 50c | 154.6$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Over | 56c | 120.89$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Under | 46c | 119.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Over | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 71.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 50c | 53.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a57…4f76backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…9811backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 65c | 32.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 52c | 28.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…5ca7backed Over | 52c | 27.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 40c | 27.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4741backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9a…5f69backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 521 | 3.8%20 W · 501 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddc…7b90backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d4…828fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. JazzThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.