TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,592

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,508 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe405…bf91backed Thunder61c26,053$15,842 inWon+$10,211.0148448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jazz39c10,420$4,064 inLost-$4,063.85,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Thunder50c9,802$4,901 inWon+$4,9012,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Jazz50c9,600$4,800 inLost-$4,80076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz40c7,439$2,946 inLost-$2,945.819,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz39c4,875$1,901 inLost-$1,901.253,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51e1…c98abacked Jazz45c1,444$650 inLost-$6506653%35 W · 31 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8839…8a3ebacked Jazz39c1,026$400 inLost-$4007433.8%25 W · 49 L-8.5wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz39c555$216 inLost-$216.452,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Jazz49c254.22$125 inLost-$124.5711741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd64…c090backed Thunder59c211.81$125 inWon+$86.813863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb89…46f1backed Jazz41c208.4$85 inLost-$85.4410045%45 W · 55 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Jazz50c200$100 inLost-$1001,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Jazz51c196.08$100 inLost-$1001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57eb…3a67backed Thunder51c196.08$100 inWon+$96.086346%29 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz39c109$43 inLost-$42.516,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz45c100$45 inLost-$454,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Thunder58c51.72$30 inWon+$21.721,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Thunder58c51.72$30 inWon+$21.7211848.3%57 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…97dfbacked Thunder60c50$30 inWon+$2016253.1%86 W · 76 L-0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7b2…6127backed Thunder55c47.28$26 inWon+$21.2812639.7%50 W · 76 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed Jazz42c31$13 inLost-$13.0218357.4%105 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Jazz40c25$10 inLost-$101,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa123…61a5backed Thunder60c25$15 inWon+$106950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.