NFL · resolved market
Broncos vs. Saints
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0648f7f0d61ea6e0ee835172ddf6c29519b6b2a2549031509b65226a5dcdde04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncos of Broncos , Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Broncos | 58c | 17,188$9,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,218.92 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Saints | 42c | 16,716$7,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,020.73 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…25b0backed Saints | 63c | 7,362$4,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,601.17 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Broncos | 11c | 5,440$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,848.51 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +12.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Broncos | 72c | 3,607$2,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.56 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Saints | 32c | 2,444$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.67 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Saints | 2c | 1,341$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Broncos | 60c | 1,300$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.93 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Saints | 11c | 1,187$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.97 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Saints | 27c | 986.84$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.22 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…6307backed Saints | 40c | 911.22$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.9 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Broncos | 61c | 904.99$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.95 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…23ddbacked Broncos | 59c | 724.42$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +66%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Saints | 44c | 557.21$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.87 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Saints | 41c | 439.35$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Broncos | 62c | 417.61$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.83 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Broncos | 77c | 415$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Saints | 40c | 400.01$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.47 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Saints | 8c | 373.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Saints | 40c | 360.58$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Saints | 42c | 334.14$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.34 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Saints | 21c | 321.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…61b1backed Broncos | 58c | 286.21$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.21 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Saints | 18c | 263.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Saints | 11c | 257.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Broncos | 61c | 256.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Saints | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Saints | 40c | 247.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Saints | 38c | 200.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…d90cbacked Broncos | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Broncos | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Broncos | 57c | 155.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Saints | 42c | 149.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +164%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Broncos | 75c | 137.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Saints | 41c | 100.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Saints | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Saints | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Saints | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Saints | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Broncos | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Saints | 37c | 98.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Broncos | 62c | 84.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed Saints | 31c | 84.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac29…fa88backed Broncos | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a7…cac6backed Broncos | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Broncos | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…b1cfbacked Broncos | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Saints | 37c | 54.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Saints | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Saints | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Saints | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f6…0c04backed Broncos | 79c | 40.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…0f46backed Saints | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d33…1d5dbacked Broncos | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Saints | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…dfb0backed Broncos | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc504…8cfebacked Broncos | 53c | 37.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +56%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Saints | 38c | 35.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Saints | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Broncos | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…6744backed Broncos | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…fbbcbacked Broncos | 64c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Broncos | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…e0e1backed Broncos | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Saints | 38c | 27.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…ac8dbacked Saints | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Saints | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…b492backed Broncos | 67c | 24.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Broncos | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…f1b8backed Broncos | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Broncos | 79c | 14.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.