MLB · resolved market
Cubs vs. Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0744b4cb62a0ae1a3a71effa03974a5608ff7c9e375fac4efbe9fe64ce9311ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cubsof Cubs, Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Mets | 9c | 2,829$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.61 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cubs | 40c | 2,728$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.87 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…6528backed Mets | 58c | 2,569$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.8 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Cubs | 53c | 2,166$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.55 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cubs | 42c | 1,415$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.68 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Mets | 12c | 1,111$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 205 | 23.4%48 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mets | 26c | 1,041$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.93 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mets | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Cubs | 59c | 840.73$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.73 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Mets | 40c | 713.52$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.41 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Cubs | 40c | 555.2$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.12 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524a…346fbacked Cubs | 40c | 480.7$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…d6bfbacked Mets | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mets | 36c | 345.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.72 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Cubs | 65c | 345.08$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cubs | 41c | 299.94$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.97 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mets | 34c | 266.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Mets | 59c | 240$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Mets | 52c | 210.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Cubs | 41c | 209.94$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.86 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Cubs | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mets | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Mets | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…7f79backed Cubs | 68c | 199.75$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cubs | 53c | 180$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Mets | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Mets | 36c | 172.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Mets | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mets | 60c | 167.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mets | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Mets | 58c | 164.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Cubs | 79c | 158.87$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Mets | 35c | 148.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Mets | 32c | 141.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cubs | 71c | 127.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Cubs | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…58f1backed Mets | 48c | 121.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Mets | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…4979backed Cubs | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa44f…38b7backed Cubs | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f94…9a4abacked Mets | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc032…6668backed Mets | 50c | 76.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Cubs | 52c | 74.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…6ed8backed Cubs | 54c | 74.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…2a51backed Mets | 59c | 54.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Mets | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Mets | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Cubs | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00d…09e2backed Cubs | 44c | 46.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe15c…44c6backed Mets | 58c | 42.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mets | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Cubs | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cubs | 39c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Mets | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cubs | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mets | 59c | 31.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Cubs | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Mets | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…cb1cbacked Cubs | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Cubs | 75c | 25.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cubs | 58c | 23.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Mets | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Cubs | 68c | 18.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Mets | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.