Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x074fbe149aa0511207fb86ff146f2146463af6a39bc98f466173bd321c2e13df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bf1…3f67backed Yes | 35c | 907.06$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.87 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…01b0backed Yes | 39c | 834$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 693.11$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.45 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 15c | 605.92$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.34 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…d148backed Yes | 58c | 595.33$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd326…6d12backed Yes | 63c | 534.72$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 5c | 491.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.03 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 479.49$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 458.97$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 8c | 436.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.99 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 29c | 427.88$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 422.6$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 38c | 270.26$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 4c | 249.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed No | 11c | 210.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.8 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 24c | 205.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 27c | 202.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.3 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 11c | 197.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d72…b6e0backed Yes | 6c | 183.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 180.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a13…fb54backed Yes | 10c | 160.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 69c | 157.58$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 51c | 148.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 144.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 8c | 132.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.63 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 8c | 132.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.63 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 20c | 121.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…a395backed Yes | 36c | 119.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 49c | 114.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 112.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 77c | 112.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 29c | 101.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 15c | 97.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 20c | 95.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 93.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…4ad7backed Yes | 63c | 86.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 61c | 85.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 14c | 78.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 16c | 76.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 68c | 75.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 28c | 71.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 18c | 70.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked No | 17c | 66.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 31c | 58.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 68c | 49.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 48.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 66c | 37.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 60c | 32.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 70c | 29.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 79c | 28.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 72c | 25.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 43c | 25.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ed…cfeabacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.