Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41e349afa0e47dc9aabe1fefbc28970cfe8e3045e389db5a6704c7775c415ce6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,663$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 1c | 1,294$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…43cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 899.98$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.99 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 685.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 669.9$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 7c | 611.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 502$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 452.26$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.08 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 407.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 18c | 202.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 188.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 178.45$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 160.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 157.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 39c | 153.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 138.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 112.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 107.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 106$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 100.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 95.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 81.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 74.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 74.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 41c | 73.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 39c | 65.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 63.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 48.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 47.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 41c | 47.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 45.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4398…47abbacked Yes | 39c | 41.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 51cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 41.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b19…bae5backed No | 63c | 35.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 33.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 63c | 32.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b9…1eebbacked No | 63c | 32.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 38c | 26.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 38c | 26.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 59c | 24.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 23.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 21.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 16.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.