Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8286f562533fa1a8c44d96c3731b5ffb79c924d1c507367ac0b0ea10b83f3280
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 1c | 1,433$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 1,014$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 921.33$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.03 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 502$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 29c | 442.09$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 313.23$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 305.78$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 22c | 256.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 215$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 14c | 206.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 28c | 169.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 146.86$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 131.22$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 125.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 121.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 111.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 108.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 107.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 100.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 73c | 89.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 24c | 88.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 15c | 83.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 81.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 27c | 74.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 74.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 19c | 70.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 33c | 64.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 26c | 63.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 58.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 71c | 56.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 27c | 55.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 70c | 53.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 43.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 77c | 40.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 74c | 30.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 67c | 30.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 79c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 67c | 24.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 23.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 21.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…bad1backed No | 68c | 15.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfed…e080backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.