Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ff1ffbfd9e96c72e5369bc98cc502d029671340f5aeb766936b59271aaad0f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 2,135$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.57 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 786.9$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.87 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 21c | 563.44$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.44 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 541.12$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 502$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 468.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.38 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…b472backed Yes | 17c | 424.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.23 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5359…6b35backed Yes | 10c | 395.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +70%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 348.2$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 8c | 343.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.49 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed No | 8c | 319.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 48c | 283.26$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.68 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 54c | 229.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 20c | 217.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.85 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 76c | 213.46$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 10c | 209.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.43 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 199.89$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.91 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 20c | 195.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.49 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 193.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 189.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 188.97$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 30c | 171.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.07 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 166.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 71c | 161.26$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a13…fb54backed Yes | 8c | 126$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 36c | 112.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 15c | 108.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 48c | 102.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 93.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 91.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 84.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 84.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 78.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 70.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 17c | 68.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 17c | 64.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec6…20ffbacked No | 75c | 63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 18c | 57.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 54c | 51.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 54c | 40.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 74c | 38.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 44c | 34.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 66c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 29.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 68c | 26.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 43c | 24.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 59c | 22.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 21.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 55c | 19.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.