NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07af66d1de0a8e2defd02af59c264394cedfd2eb60d3279de307d8380135aafd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns | 47c | 11,798$5,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,252.94 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Grizzlies | 53c | 10,411$5,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,517.61 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Grizzlies | 51c | 9,821$5,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,029.96 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 48c | 8,465$4,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,439.2 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Suns | 53c | 7,523$3,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,537.27 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Grizzlies | 46c | 3,470$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.24 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Grizzlies | 55c | 3,395$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Suns | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies | 46c | 1,011$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.06 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 1,001$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.94 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 956$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.12 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Grizzlies | 53c | 700$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Suns | 46c | 419.57$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.57 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Grizzlies | 45c | 399.99$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…aa3abacked Suns | 51c | 332.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.17 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies | 50c | 286$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.57 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Grizzlies | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f78ebacked Grizzlies | 49c | 195.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 133 | 39.1%52 W · 81 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Suns | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Grizzlies | 55c | 174$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Suns | 49c | 136.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 51c | 109.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…d7f1backed Grizzlies | 54c | 103.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Grizzlies | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 50c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236a…1a3ebacked Grizzlies | 54c | 53.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Grizzlies | 54c | 40.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 191 | 47.1%90 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Grizzlies | 43c | 38.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…4884backed Grizzlies | 48c | 37.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Suns | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Grizzlies | 53c | 29.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…8da2backed Grizzlies | 53c | 28.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Suns | 48c | 25.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-7.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. GrizzliesSuns won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.