NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54fad7ff799f8976dccb0a839a1afe2805d6be429cbfadc90adf150473910144
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 9,280$3,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,892.17 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Suns | 57c | 8,734$5,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,718.36 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 59c | 2,865$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.79 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 40c | 1,665$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Suns | 55c | 1,200$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.07 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Grizzlies | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies | 43c | 652.48$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.09 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 40c | 513.33$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.33 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Suns | 52c | 420$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Grizzlies | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Suns | 54c | 282.31$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…a556backed Suns | 52c | 259.62$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.62 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Suns | 53c | 205$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Grizzlies | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Suns | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Suns | 55c | 98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Suns | 52c | 95.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Suns | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…089abacked Suns | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Suns | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6e…da08backed Suns | 56c | 72.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Grizzlies | 44c | 66.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Suns | 57c | 63.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Grizzlies | 47c | 60.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Grizzlies | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Grizzlies | 30c | 51.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Grizzlies | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies | 48c | 49.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Suns | 62c | 46.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Grizzlies | 48c | 41.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…35cbbacked Suns | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41bf…edffbacked Suns | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Suns | 55c | 37.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…876dbacked Suns | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Suns | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…51d1backed Suns | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Suns | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Grizzlies | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Grizzlies | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3320…7ee7backed Suns | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Suns | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Suns | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Suns | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 192 | 32.8%63 W · 129 L | -18.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-7.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. GrizzliesSuns won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.