NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb171bab8921a49c1ea19ca403dfc1877469dd6e9098c8d0b5ecda80d55759436
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Grizzlies | 50c | 9,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns | 54c | 8,762$4,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,026.32 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Suns | 52c | 5,254$2,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.88 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 5,211$2,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,657.51 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Suns | 53c | 4,300$2,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 43c | 3,516$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Grizzlies | 45c | 1,850$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.41 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Suns | 51c | 1,800$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Grizzlies | 44c | 1,575$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.29 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Grizzlies | 51c | 1,516$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.25 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Suns | 56c | 1,370$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.09 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 1,041$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.29 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Suns | 55c | 969.85$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.43 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Suns | 54c | 933.63$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.14 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 43c | 766.94$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.05 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 57c | 712$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.09 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies | 45c | 700$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Suns | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 43c | 527.81$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.96 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Grizzlies | 51c | 345.1$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed Suns | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Suns | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Grizzlies | 49c | 280.46$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Suns | 59c | 275$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Suns | 51c | 196.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Suns | 51c | 145$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Grizzlies | 48c | 136$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 132.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f8…256ebacked Grizzlies | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies | 50c | 100.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Suns | 50c | 100.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Suns | 51c | 98.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Grizzlies | 45c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Suns | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Grizzlies | 44c | 60.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Grizzlies | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Grizzlies | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Suns | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Suns | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Suns | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d90…cf08backed Grizzlies | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 40.7%81 W · 118 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Suns | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Suns | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Suns | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 34.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Suns | 60c | 33.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Grizzlies | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Grizzlies | 50c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Suns | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Suns | 50c | 20.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…5f78backed Suns | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-5.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-7.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. GrizzliesSuns won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5Under won
- Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.