MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07c5b84a6fb2a2b0b9204411249036293e67de87138ae2c6f10b1e6f16c45351
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $210,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 45c | 152,801$68,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,022.54 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 108,819$60,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,311.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 44,463$22,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,004.09 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 50c | 19,536$9,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,768.12 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…82c6backed Over | 50c | 15,147$7,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,575.75 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Under | 52c | 11,764$6,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,117.02 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 10,607$5,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,010.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 51c | 3,368$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.8 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 1,631$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 49c | 1,464$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.64 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 1,358$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.74 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 50c | 766$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.55 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 54c | 687$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.98 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 50c | 531.46$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.64 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Over | 51c | 521.35$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.46 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…c9a7backed Over | 47c | 497.36$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.6 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 53c | 439.36$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.86 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 370.21$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.21 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 317.5$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 77c | 260.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 244.8$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 59c | 216.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.95 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 53c | 205.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 49c | 189.23$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.51 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 47c | 185.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 49c | 171.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 50c | 167$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 55c | 142.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 50c | 129$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 126$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…3961backed Under | 47c | 119.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…aa9dbacked Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 94 | 24.5%23 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 49c | 112.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 48c | 100.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 50c | 99.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Under | 57c | 94.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 53c | 92.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 50c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…1a91backed Over | 52c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Under | 50c | 89.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 50c | 85.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 48c | 82.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 47c | 74.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…d83abacked Under | 50c | 72.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 62.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 51c | 61.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Over | 58c | 54.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Over | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 50c | 46.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 53c | 35.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 50c | 33.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Over | 55c | 31.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Under | 52c | 30.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…6872backed Under | 49c | 30.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Over | 50c | 30.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75eb…ce0bbacked Over | 51c | 29.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb20…40a6backed Under | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 53c | 23.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Over | 47c | 21.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…deaebacked Over | 51c | 20.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…87eabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.