MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e4b680cb6d1de338536f14c9185b1f396d52e2c3819f499a6194165e6b794b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 12,902$4,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,924.03 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…fb2ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 8,627$3,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,105.66 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 6,749$4,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.7 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 4,385$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.04 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.58 | 238 | 54.6%130 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 3,568$2,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.58 | 456 | 50.4%230 W · 226 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Milwaukee Brewers | 59c | 3,507$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.87 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 3,234$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.07 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…bd70backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 2,676$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 2,300$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.9 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 2,228$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.44 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 2,183$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.05 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 937.5$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 937.5$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 911.08$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.99 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 575.69$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.04 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 555.49$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.53 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 429.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.8 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 340.11$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.84 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…9779backed Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 263.78$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 244.4$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 214.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Milwaukee Brewers | 66c | 212.17$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.17 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 204.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 6c | 169.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 160.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 139.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 127.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 126.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 122.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 121$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 109.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 104.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…0653backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 100.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 551 | 46.8%258 W · 293 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 95.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 26c | 79.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 78.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 77.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 76.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 67.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 64.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 63.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 60.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 516 | 46.9%242 W · 274 L | -21.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 59.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 62c | 53.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…2d27backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 29c | 51.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 50.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 42.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 41.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 198 | 39.4%78 W · 120 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 32.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 32.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 29.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 24.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 65c | 16.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Milwaukee Brewers | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.