Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07d1ef2b3049bc90f982329b636090dbe56ab05ebed083f4486bd2523a4bc7e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 5c | 1,260$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 13c | 795.98$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.12 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 13c | 599.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 6c | 438.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 21c | 399.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 395.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 299.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 255.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 255.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 242.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 78c | 215.49$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 23c | 208.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 12c | 199.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 9c | 193.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 8c | 191.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes | 12c | 166.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66d…0884backed Yes | 9c | 163.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 8c | 159.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 13c | 155.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 151.06$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 133.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 131.58$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 9c | 128.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 20c | 117.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 113.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 24c | 113.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked Yes | 13c | 108.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 11c | 100.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 98.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 14c | 93.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 77c | 79.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 79.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 78.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 78c | 68.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 22c | 65.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…985abacked Yes | 30c | 63.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 62.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 52.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 76c | 49.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 80c | 24.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.