Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x421824b40d9426018db1248942022c5432b719d58bf55c34026f71a54cf66c54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7426…7b6dbacked No | 9c | 14,619$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 3c | 11,346$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,999.99 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 8c | 4,274$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,915.78 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 1c | 4,048$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,009.54 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 79c | 3,095$2,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,433.55 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 26c | 2,613$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.53 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 66c | 2,425$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.68 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 26c | 2,372$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.08 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 16c | 1,886$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.18 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 1c | 1,709$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 1,577$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…5228backed No | 59c | 1,492$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 1,265$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.41 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 10c | 1,028$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 880.46$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 25c | 806.88$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.47 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 47c | 622.1$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.03 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 35c | 603.48$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.78 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 61c | 576.31$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.48 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 566.64$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 56c | 547.4$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.14 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 428.9$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 57c | 413.22$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.11 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 14c | 389.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.07 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 356.49$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe009…121ebacked Yes | 74c | 337.31$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 334.48$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 329.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 27c | 323.15$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 319.35$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.29 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 13c | 314.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42a…ebeabacked Yes | 18c | 306.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.19 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 11c | 303.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.99 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 56c | 286.8$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.24 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 22c | 285.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 67c | 274.87$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 24c | 270$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.12 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 79c | 269.56$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.04 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 269.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 29c | 258$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 20c | 255.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 45c | 242.42$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.29 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 8c | 238$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b23…1598backed No | 63c | 235.85$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 77c | 221.32$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.18 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 62c | 218.12$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 74c | 213$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 208.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.03 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1337…b79fbacked Yes | 14c | 207.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 50c | 205.58$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 23c | 203.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…6922backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 5c | 194.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 193.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 189.6$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.71 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 188.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 186.95$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 183.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 47c | 182.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 59c | 180.6$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 180.15$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 23c | 180$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.2 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 57c | 176.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 11c | 175.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 170.52$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.61 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 78c | 163.23$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.07 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 77c | 153.33$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 27c | 146.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 8c | 142.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.52 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 141.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.62 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 140.72$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.63 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 25c | 135$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.45 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 9c | 135$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…824bbacked Yes | 76c | 128.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 127.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 126.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x02eb…d124backed No | 34c | 123.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 52c | 119.11$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 23c | 117.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 26c | 117.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1805…a069backed Yes | 66c | 114.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 77c | 112.92$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 31c | 108.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 108.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…8187backed Yes | 63c | 105.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed Yes | 21c | 103.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 50c | 100.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…aeeebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 99.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 61c | 99.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6313…1db9backed No | 80c | 99.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 93.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.