MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0865fe34a2478d1f02fe30865f5db4289d401bebf82182845b6ce66445381f72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 6,352$2,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,383.9 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 5,662$3,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,071.48 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 1,230$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.82 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 1,179$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.73 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 1,142$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.33 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 999.97$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 881$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.83 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 785.73$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.44 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 700$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 667.88$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.13 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 564.32$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.46 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 471.37$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.47 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 425.58$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.98 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -15.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 406.37$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.25 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 358.23$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.02 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 341$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.02 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…5a3ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 20c | 298.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 260.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 254.37$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.62 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 251.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 242$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.13 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 228.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.41 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 224.19$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 181.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 54c | 174.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Miami Marlins | 78c | 170$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +8.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 141.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 136.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 130.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 122.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 114.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 105.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 99.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 97.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 94.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 68c | 93.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 91.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 228 | 53.5%122 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 67.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 63.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 62.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e83…b22fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 61.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 58.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Miami Marlins | 46c | 57.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…2d48backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 56.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a46…bfb6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 51.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 46.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 37.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 37.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 35.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 29.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 28.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 22.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3636backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 21.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.