MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6709d7ff07db6e80b89e4cfbf9ce7efa16cb08462410526f9aee1e55bc3eac09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,349.99 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 9,549$5,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,488.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 52c | 8,541$4,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,416.12 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 6,971$3,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,423.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 4,597$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.37 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 3,030$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.1 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 1,335$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.27 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 967.9$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.85 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 47c | 880$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 45c | 865.78$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.28 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Over | 52c | 573.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.02 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 40c | 489.9$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.82 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 36c | 280.54$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 48c | 259.91$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.38 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 251.34$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 249.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked Under | 56c | 217.77$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.45 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 49c | 194.04$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.27 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 47c | 161.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 35c | 125.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 46c | 122.07$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 33c | 99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 47c | 84.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 53c | 79.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 21c | 72.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 48c | 71.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 48c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 42c | 65.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 47c | 65.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 54c | 59.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Over | 32c | 57.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 150 | 37.3%56 W · 94 L | -15.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 49c | 55.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ba…cf3fbacked Under | 60c | 50.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 44c | 47.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 44c | 44.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Under | 55c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 50c | 42.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 51c | 41.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 48c | 35.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 51c | 34.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 48c | 32.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Under | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 50c | 31.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 47c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 55c | 27.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Under | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Under | 49c | 20.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.