MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64bccb7a1c8e292bc65908c214933dcab17b80d643c2315712b3decc6b359348
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 60c | 12,422$7,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,454.5 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 39c | 1,854$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.82 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 41c | 1,199$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.26 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 41c | 1,100$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 39c | 1,000$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 40c | 875$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 807.93$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.83 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 40c | 763.34$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 728.99$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.88 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 40c | 618.89$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.9 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 38c | 605.26$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.26 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 42c | 591.9$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.3 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 58c | 481.55$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.74 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 449.18$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.13 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 58c | 432.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 394.15$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.15 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 381.98$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.27 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 62c | 310$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 56c | 230.77$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.92 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 49c | 150.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 68c | 142$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 67c | 140$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.15 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 43c | 135.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 40c | 102.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 96.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 43c | 93.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 43c | 84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 41c | 75.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 53c | 72.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 55c | 68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 54c | 64.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 39c | 62.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 56c | 59.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 70c | 59.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 55c | 45.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 45.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 43.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 55c | 42.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 60c | 37.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 55c | 36.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 56c | 31.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 43c | 30.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 64c | 28.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 60c | 28.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 75c | 25.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 74c | 24.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 61c | 18.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 61c | 16.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.