Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta dip to $600 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x088513cd0b5a40f3177cbfae89d8a3e80a43e74b9193bd0982b66a34d0d4c5b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 1c | 4,552$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 1,106 | 43.9%486 W · 620 L | +27.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…9c16backed No | 1c | 1,389$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 6c | 1,372$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,066$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…0b02backed No | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…40acbacked Yes | 73c | 646.74$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 4c | 615.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…8fc4backed Yes | 72c | 612.29$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 6c | 556.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 48c | 421.3$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.49 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 50c | 402.84$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…778cbacked Yes | 63c | 350$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 252.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 34c | 220.95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.7 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 48c | 217.02$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x374f…5c21backed Yes | 49c | 216.23$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked No | 56c | 210.69$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 64c | 206.68$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 200.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 169 | 49.1%83 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 150.18$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.32 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed Yes | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c22…0df6backed Yes | 46c | 119.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 35c | 109.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd51…796fbacked No | 66c | 103.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…dd78backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…bbbcbacked Yes | 27c | 99.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…8702backed No | 67c | 95.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 68c | 90.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed No | 71c | 88.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 70c | 75.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed No | 72c | 74.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 59c | 70.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380a…4741backed Yes | 58c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935e…f456backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Yes | 64c | 61.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3604…bd45backed Yes | 46c | 57.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…d7b2backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…aa31backed No | 74c | 46.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…86f1backed No | 74c | 45.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…78e9backed No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c72…a042backed No | 53c | 39.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 47c | 35.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b5…3bffbacked No | 74c | 34.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked Yes | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 27.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 48c | 26.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…2439backed No | 74c | 19.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed Yes | 78c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta dip to $600 in November?this page
- Will Meta dip to $670 in November?Yes won
- Will Meta dip to $700 in November?Yes won
- Will Meta dip to $720 in November?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $625 in Nov 25-28?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $650 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Meta reach $760 in November?No won
- Will Meta reach $800 in November?No won
- Will Meta reach $870 in November?No won
- Will Meta reach $910 in November?No won
- Will Meta reach $960 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.