Earnings · resolved market
Will O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x089b946d1e8f61d3c92e45416f654445bf5a251b73cbb6a37b7b698737d9b599
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 55c | 1,070$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 26c | 510$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.1 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked No | 23c | 500$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 38c | 360.53$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 49c | 322.78$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.97 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 69c | 220$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 44c | 220$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 35c | 203.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd96…e28dbacked Yes | 46c | 196$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 53c | 159.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 68c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Yes | 62c | 115$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 46c | 106.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…416abacked Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 13c | 93.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132e…c724backed Yes | 35c | 74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…ee1dbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 51c | 28.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 70c | 25.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…4af2backed Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 32cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xccb4…2ca1backed No | 47c | 21.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.