MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08bd79932a1d5a6a5ee34d93fe50a36a48a2266c6555888b426d413f88347692
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 3,495$2,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.74 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 77c | 3,098$2,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.52 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 19c | 3,031$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.54 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 2,901$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.4 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 15c | 1,289$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.03 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 27c | 1,142$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.34 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 56c | 1,013$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.76 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…7dd1backed Over | 42c | 952.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 452$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.48 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 19c | 443.37$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 78c | 305.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 226$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 18c | 195.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 55c | 183$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 70c | 176.12$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 22c | 164.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 45c | 142.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 63c | 114.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 28c | 100.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 74c | 78.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…b9d0backed Under | 80c | 72.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…5fcfbacked Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 22c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Under | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Over | 34c | 37.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Under | 77c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 78c | 24.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Under | 79c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Under | 74c | 20.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 74c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Under | 72c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 70c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 10.5this page
- New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresNew York Mets won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Diego PadresYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.